Fiscal Implications of Rohingya Crisis for Bangladesh

Abstract

The study presents some preliminary observations on economic and social impact of recent Rohingya influx to Bangladesh, based on field-level investigations. It also makes estimations on resource requirements for hosting Rohingyas under various scenarios. According to the study, required fund for Rohingya population amounts to USD 1,211 million in fiscal year 2018-19. Assuming that 300 Rohingyas will be repatriated per day from January 2019, and there are no increases in population growth and inflation rates, the required repatriation time will be 11 years. Assuming that 300 Rohingyas are repatriated per day, and population growth and inflation rates will follow the existing trend, repatriation will take 12 years. If 100 Rohingyas are repatriated per day, and population growth and inflation rates are taken into consideration, total repatriation period will be 42 years. Resource requirements in the above mentioned scenarios will be USD 6,348 million, USD 9,197 million and USD 75,011 million, respectively. A fourth scenario, where there is no repatriation, and changes in population growth and inflation rates are included, the cost of hosting the Rohingya people during the first five years will stand to USD 7,046 million.