Assessment of Readiness for Fossil Fuel Import Disruption
Nakamura, Tsunaeki; Young, Shim Jun; Kutani, Ichiro | October 2018
Abstract
The study compares the energy status in emerging EAS countries introducing LNG, such as Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Among these countries, Thailand is chosen as the most suitable candidate for a case study for a number of reasons, such as its reasonably diversified natural gas supply sources, including indigenous natural gas resources and import of natural gas from Myanmar via pipelines. Furthermore, Thailand plays a leading role in LNG imports in the region.
The risk assessment process for analysing LNG import disruptions is discussed. This study applies the ‘N-1 formula’, which has been widely used to assess gas supply security in the European Union. Having identified risk sources of LNG disruption and their amounts and durations, the study has compiled a set of LNG import disruption scenarios. These include import disruption of the largest long-term contract and total failure of the largest LNG receiving terminal as the two most serious disruption possibilities. They also cover unprecedented worst-case scenarios that necessitate action from the government as a matter of national energy security.
The study investigates in-depth possible countermeasures for LNG import disruptions. For Thailand, comprehensive results demonstrate that in the short term the country is reasonably resilient against LNG import disruptions, although consideration should be given to long-term energy security, especially as Thailand is expected to rely on more LNG imports in the future.
Citation
Nakamura, Tsunaeki; Young, Shim Jun; Kutani, Ichiro. 2018. Assessment of Readiness for Fossil Fuel Import Disruption. © Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9396.Keywords
Alternative energy
Alternative energy development
Commercial Energy
Energy Economics
Energy Technology
Household Energy Consumption
Industrial Energy Consumption
Primary Energy
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Evaluation Techniques
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation Criteria
Alternative energy program
Alternative energy technology
Domestic Energy
Energy Demand
Energy Prices
Energy Pricing Policy
Energy Supply
Nuclear
Primary Energy Supply
Development Indicators
Social Participation
Low Income Groups
Income Generation
Newly Industrializing Countries
Input output analysis
Cost benefit analysis
Needs assessment
Economic evaluation
Energy Industries
Energy planning
Alternative energy technology
Project impact
Program management
Project appraisal
Green technology
Electric power
Energy development
Power supply
Electric power consumption
Price
Consumer
Consumption
Supply and demand
Electric power plant
Power
Renewable energy source
Renewable energy resource
Energy conservation
Energy policy
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Participative management
Energy consumption
Risk assessment
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