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    Assessment of Readiness for Fossil Fuel Import Disruption

    Nakamura, Tsunaeki; Young, Shim Jun; Kutani, Ichiro | October 2018
    Abstract
    The study compares the energy status in emerging EAS countries introducing LNG, such as Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Among these countries, Thailand is chosen as the most suitable candidate for a case study for a number of reasons, such as its reasonably diversified natural gas supply sources, including indigenous natural gas resources and import of natural gas from Myanmar via pipelines. Furthermore, Thailand plays a leading role in LNG imports in the region. The risk assessment process for analysing LNG import disruptions is discussed. This study applies the ‘N-1 formula’, which has been widely used to assess gas supply security in the European Union. Having identified risk sources of LNG disruption and their amounts and durations, the study has compiled a set of LNG import disruption scenarios. These include import disruption of the largest long-term contract and total failure of the largest LNG receiving terminal as the two most serious disruption possibilities. They also cover unprecedented worst-case scenarios that necessitate action from the government as a matter of national energy security. The study investigates in-depth possible countermeasures for LNG import disruptions. For Thailand, comprehensive results demonstrate that in the short term the country is reasonably resilient against LNG import disruptions, although consideration should be given to long-term energy security, especially as Thailand is expected to rely on more LNG imports in the future.
    Citation
    Nakamura, Tsunaeki; Young, Shim Jun; Kutani, Ichiro. 2018. Assessment of Readiness for Fossil Fuel Import Disruption. © Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9396.
    Keywords
    Alternative energy
    Alternative energy development
    Commercial Energy
    Energy Economics
    Energy Technology
    Household Energy Consumption
    Industrial Energy Consumption
    Primary Energy
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Evaluation Techniques
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation Criteria
    Alternative energy program
    Alternative energy technology
    Domestic Energy
    Energy Demand
    Energy Prices
    Energy Pricing Policy
    Energy Supply
    Nuclear
    Primary Energy Supply
    Development Indicators
    Social Participation
    Low Income Groups
    Income Generation
    Newly Industrializing Countries
    Input output analysis
    Cost benefit analysis
    Needs assessment
    Economic evaluation
    Energy Industries
    Energy planning
    Alternative energy technology
    Project impact
    Program management
    Project appraisal
    Green technology
    Electric power
    Energy development
    Power supply
    Electric power consumption
    Price
    Consumer
    Consumption
    Supply and demand
    Electric power plant
    Power
    Renewable energy source
    Renewable energy resource
    Energy conservation
    Energy policy
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
    Participative management
    Energy consumption
    Risk assessment
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9396
    Metadata
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    Thumbnail
    RPR_FY2017_06.pdf (2.075Mb)
    Author
    Nakamura, Tsunaeki
    Young, Shim Jun
    Kutani, Ichiro
    Theme
    Energy
    Evaluation
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise