Home

    About

    Open Access Repository

    SearchBrowse by ThemeBrowse by AuthorBrowse by TypeMost Popular Titles

    Other Resources

    Curators

    Events

    Contributing Think Tanks

    Networks

    Using Content

    FAQs

    Terms of Use

    13,800+ curated items from top Think Tanks.
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Home

    About

    Open Access Repository

    SearchBrowse by ThemeBrowse by AuthorBrowse by TypeMost Popular Titles

    Other Resources

    Curators

    Events

    Contributing Think Tanks

    Networks

    Using Content

    FAQs

    Terms of Use

    A Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables

    Pyo, Hak K.; Oh, Soo Hyun | May 2016
    Abstract
    Korea’s export performance has exhibited a remarkable downturn since the end of 2014, declining over the 12 months of 2015 by about eight percent in nominal terms. Conjecturing this to reflect depreciation of the Japanese Yen and, during the second half of 2015, of the Chinese Yuan coupled with a sudden decline in China’s import demand, we apply an Armington (1969)-type trade model to match international trade data with input-output tables in order to identify the sources of export variation in Korea to analyze the effect of income (GDP) and exchange rate variation. That Korean exports, given a positive income shock in trading partner countries, tend to be replaced by foreign alternatives reflects a tightening of technology as well as price competition in the global market, and suggests as an optimal export promotion strategy for Korea the pursuit of technological progress and a diversification policy that encompasses both destination and export products.
    Citation
    Pyo, Hak K.; Oh, Soo Hyun. 2016. A Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables. © Korea Institute for International Economic Policy. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9180.
    Print ISBN
    978-89-322-4253-8
    Keywords
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Project Evaluation
    Program Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Operations Evaluation
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Project impact
    Development projects
    Program management
    Performance appraisal
    Project appraisal
    Technology assessment
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Exports
    Exports
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Grievance procedures
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
    Exchange rate
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9180
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    WP16-02.pdf (2.987Mb)
    Author
    Pyo, Hak K.
    Oh, Soo Hyun
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
    Labor Migration
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise