A Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables
Pyo, Hak K.; Oh, Soo Hyun | May 2016
Abstract
Korea’s export performance has exhibited a remarkable downturn since the end of 2014, declining over the 12 months of 2015 by about eight percent in nominal terms. Conjecturing this to reflect depreciation of the Japanese Yen and, during the second half of 2015, of the Chinese Yuan coupled with a sudden decline in China’s import demand, we apply an Armington (1969)-type trade model to match international trade data with input-output tables in order to identify the sources of export variation in Korea to analyze the effect of income (GDP) and exchange rate variation. That Korean exports, given a positive income shock in trading partner countries, tend to be replaced by foreign alternatives reflects a tightening of technology as well as price competition in the global market, and suggests as an optimal export promotion strategy for Korea the pursuit of technological progress and a diversification policy that encompasses both destination and export products.
Citation
Pyo, Hak K.; Oh, Soo Hyun. 2016. A Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables. © Korea Institute for International Economic Policy. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9180.Print ISBN
978-89-322-4253-8
Keywords
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Project Evaluation
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Operations Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Project impact
Development projects
Program management
Performance appraisal
Project appraisal
Technology assessment
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
Economic forecast
Exports
Exports
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
Cumulative effects assessment
Grievance procedures
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Exchange rate
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
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