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    Natural Disaster Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in Asia: Evidence for Typhoons and Droughts

    Alano, Emmanuel; Lee, Minsoo | December 2016
    Abstract
    Climate-related natural disaster shocks are expected to rise as the earth is getting warmer, which will adversely affect growth prospects globally. Current robust estimates of the effects of typhoons and droughts point to both short- and long-term declines in national incomes compared to pre disaster trends and economic effects likely to persist up to 2 decades. Using the typhoon landfalls and damage in Asia, we analyze the wind–damage relationship and find damages to gross domestic product increase by 2.3% for an increase in maximum wind speed. The extreme projected temperature rise in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 will result in higher damage by more than 50% in 2100. Vulnerable developing Asian economies could expect dampened growth with significant impacts on agriculture and tourism, a concern that may roll back years of development gains and exacerbate inequality. To cope with increasing disaster risks, both short-term adaptation strategies like relocation, government transfers, and other social safety nets, as well as long-term strategies like disaster insurance or similar ex ante mechanisms are needed.
    Citation
    Alano, Emmanuel; Lee, Minsoo. 2016. Natural Disaster Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in Asia: Evidence for Typhoons and Droughts. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8833. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (Print)
    2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
    Keywords
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Project Evaluation
    Program Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Operations Evaluation
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation
    Disaster preparedness
    Disaster prevention
    Disaster management
    Emergency relief
    Flood control
    Fire prevention
    Natural disasters
    Man-made disasters
    Post-conflict recovery
    Fragile states
    Project impact
    Development projects
    Program management
    Performance appraisal
    Project appraisal
    Technology assessment
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Grievance procedures
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8833
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-503.pdf (834.6Kb)
    Author
    Alano, Emmanuel
    Lee, Minsoo
    Theme
    Evaluation
    Disaster
    Labor Migration
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise