Natural Disaster Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in Asia: Evidence for Typhoons and Droughts
Alano, Emmanuel; Lee, Minsoo | December 2016
Abstract
Climate-related natural disaster shocks are expected to rise as the earth is getting warmer, which will adversely affect growth prospects globally. Current robust estimates of the effects of typhoons and droughts point to both short- and long-term declines in national incomes compared to pre disaster trends and economic effects likely to persist up to 2 decades. Using the typhoon landfalls and damage in Asia, we analyze the wind–damage relationship and find damages to gross domestic product increase by 2.3% for an increase in maximum wind speed. The extreme projected temperature rise in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 will result in higher damage by more than 50% in 2100. Vulnerable developing Asian economies could expect dampened growth with significant impacts on agriculture and tourism, a concern that may roll back years of development gains and exacerbate inequality. To cope with increasing disaster risks, both short-term adaptation strategies like relocation, government transfers, and other social safety nets, as well as long-term strategies like disaster insurance or similar ex ante mechanisms are needed.
Citation
Alano, Emmanuel; Lee, Minsoo. 2016. Natural Disaster Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in Asia: Evidence for Typhoons and Droughts. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8833. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537 (Print)
2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
Keywords
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Project Evaluation
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Operations Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Disaster preparedness
Disaster prevention
Disaster management
Emergency relief
Flood control
Fire prevention
Natural disasters
Man-made disasters
Post-conflict recovery
Fragile states
Project impact
Development projects
Program management
Performance appraisal
Project appraisal
Technology assessment
Cumulative effects assessment
Grievance procedures
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
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