How to Fill the Working-Age Population Gap in Asia: A Population Accounting Approach
Kang, Jong Woo; Magoncia, Grendell Vie | November 2016
Abstract
The world faces growing challenges of aging populations. Asia is no exception with rapidly increasing life expectancies and falling fertility rates. To help policy makers address these issues, this paper examines three sociopolicy options: (i) extending the retirement age, (ii) augmenting labor migration within the region, and (iii) through using population accounting methodology with the goal of increasing fertility rates. When the retirement age is extended from 65 to 70, the overall dependency ratio in 2050 would decline from 56.7% to 44.7%. If the 2010 dependency ratio were to be maintained, the region would need to import significant numbers of workers aged 15‒44 even as those aged 45‒64 would be in surplus. India, Pakistan, and the Philippines will be major sources of surplus labor. Raising fertility rates to the 2.1% replacement level will increase the dependency ratio for the time being, but will eventually reduce it over several decades depending on each country’s demographic structure.
Citation
Kang, Jong Woo; Magoncia, Grendell Vie. 2016. How to Fill the Working-Age Population Gap in Asia: A Population Accounting Approach. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8829. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537 (Print)
2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
Keywords
Development Challenges
Asian Development Bank
Development Management
Skills Development
Performance Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Job Evaluation
Staff Development
Job Evaluation
Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Program Evaluation
The Development Agenda
Staff Development
Skills Development
Asian Development Bank
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Project Evaluation
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Operations Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Economic development
Standard of living
Trade development
Employment
Performance appraisal
Needs assessment
Input output analysis
ADB
Employment
Performance appraisal
Project failure
Project impact
Project appraisal
Career development
Vocational training
Labor policy
Manpower policy
Promotions
Career development
Job analysis
Participative management
Grievance procedures
Supervisors
Vocational guidance
Rural manpower policy
Career development
Applications for positions
Affirmative action programs
Labor turnover
Self-evaluation
Supervisors
Cumulative effects assessment
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8829Metadata
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