Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies
Kopits, George; Ferrarini, Benno; Ramayandi, Arief | May 2016
Abstract
The paper explores risk-based fiscal analytical approaches to complement a standard debt sustainability analysis when applied under conditions of risk and uncertainty. To outline a possible road map for risk-adjusted fiscal sustainability analysis, the paper first examines the types of vulnerability faced by different emerging economies in Asia and reviews a range of stochastic methods that attempt to explicitly incorporate risk in their analysis. Drawing on international experience, we note that the usefulness of applying a stochastic approach hinges on policy makers’ capacity to identify the sources and extent of risks in assessing fiscal sustainability, which should then allow them to simulate the impact of a hypothetical corrective action on the baseline trajectory of debt or net worth and on its stochastic distribution, including fat-tail risks of default.
Citation
Kopits, George; Ferrarini, Benno; Ramayandi, Arief. 2016. Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8815.ISSN
2313-6537 (Print)
2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
Keywords
Financial Stability
Financial Management System
Financial Restructuring
Capital Market Development
Market Development
Economics
Erosion
International Economics
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Performance Evaluation
Impact Evaluation
Foreign and Domestic Financing
Foreign Direct Investment
International Financial Market
Multilateral Financial Institutions
Economic Recession
Market
Crisis
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
Economic forecast
Business Financing
Investment Requirements
Business recessions
Multilateral development banks
Regulatory reform
Capital
Exports
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Investment Requirements
Banks
International banks and banking
Capital movements
Central banks and banking
Bills of exchange
Swaps
Banks and banking
Financial crisis
Credit control
Credit allocation
Capital market
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