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    Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies

    Kopits, George; Ferrarini, Benno; Ramayandi, Arief | May 2016
    Abstract
    The paper explores risk-based fiscal analytical approaches to complement a standard debt sustainability analysis when applied under conditions of risk and uncertainty. To outline a possible road map for risk-adjusted fiscal sustainability analysis, the paper first examines the types of vulnerability faced by different emerging economies in Asia and reviews a range of stochastic methods that attempt to explicitly incorporate risk in their analysis. Drawing on international experience, we note that the usefulness of applying a stochastic approach hinges on policy makers’ capacity to identify the sources and extent of risks in assessing fiscal sustainability, which should then allow them to simulate the impact of a hypothetical corrective action on the baseline trajectory of debt or net worth and on its stochastic distribution, including fat-tail risks of default.
    Citation
    Kopits, George; Ferrarini, Benno; Ramayandi, Arief. 2016. Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8815.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (Print)
    2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
    Keywords
    Financial Stability
    Financial Management System
    Financial Restructuring
    Capital Market Development
    Market Development
    Economics
    Erosion
    International Economics
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Performance Evaluation
    Impact Evaluation
    Foreign and Domestic Financing
    Foreign Direct Investment
    International Financial Market
    Multilateral Financial Institutions
    Economic Recession
    Market
    Crisis
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Business Financing
    Investment Requirements
    Business recessions
    Multilateral development banks
    Regulatory reform
    Capital
    Exports
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Investment Requirements
    Banks
    International banks and banking
    Capital movements
    Central banks and banking
    Bills of exchange
    Swaps
    Banks and banking
    Financial crisis
    Credit control
    Credit allocation
    Capital market
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8815
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-483.pdf (1.391Mb)
    Author
    Kopits, George
    Ferrarini, Benno
    Ramayandi, Arief
    Theme
    Finance
    Economics
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise