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    Are Global Shocks Leading Indicators of a Currency Crisis in Viet Nam?

    Anh, Pham Thi Hoang | March 2017
    Abstract
    This paper aims to identify leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam based on an early warning system for the period 1996–February 2016. This paper found that global financial shocks (e.g., regional and global financial crisis, unexpected changes in monetary policy of largest economies such as the United States and the People’s Republic of China), and domestic credit growth rate are leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam in all three models. Deficits in trade balance, international reserves, and overvaluation of the dong are also good indicators. In addition, a model in which a currency crisis or turbulence in the foreign exchange market is defined based on the exchange market pressure and parallel market premium, with window length of 2 months, outperformed for predicting a currency crisis in Viet Nam. Empirical results suggested that probability of predicting a true currency crisis was 77.5%.
    Citation
    Anh, Pham Thi Hoang. 2017. Are Global Shocks Leading Indicators of a Currency Crisis in Viet Nam?. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7619.
    Keywords
    Crisis
    Unemployment
    Economic cooperation
    Gross domestic product
    Employment
    Economic forecast
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Economic Crisis
    Economic Efficiency
    Economic Policies
    Regional Economic Development
    Job Evaluation
    Evaluation
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Performance Evaluation
    Impact Evaluation
    Economic Welfare
    Economic Incentives
    Financial crisis
    Labor economics
    Regional economics
    Turnover
    Economic survey
    Job analysis
    Labor turnover
    International relief
    Exports
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7619
    Metadata
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    adbi-wp686.pdf (2.022Mb)
    Author
    Anh, Pham Thi Hoang
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise