The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth rate, which provides a framework to test the ELG hypothesis, we show that the PRC’s actual long-run growth ...

Potential output growth generally decelerated after the global financial crisis during 2008–2009. This paper examines the possible determinants of potential output growth using Bayesian Model Averaging and assesses how the determinants can be used to increase the growth of potential output. It finds that the long-term growth of working-age population, the tertiary level gross enrollment ratio, the ...

"Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, Gemma Estrada, and Jesus Felipe provide an analysis of the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry in the Philippines. The paper provides a profile of the BPO sector; makes comparisons with other large BPO providers; and uses input–output tables to estimate intersectoral linkages and the potential impact of the sector on employment. Constraints on the sector’s growth are ...

The growth diagnostics methodology pioneered by Hausmann et al. (2005) is becoming a key piece of the toolkit for donor agencies in formulate their operational strategies. This paper aims at clarifying the primary objectives of the approach, highlighting some limitations for operational use. The key to benefiting from the full potential of this approach lies in a proper understanding of what it does; ...

"This paper provides evidence of a problem with the influential testing and assessment of Solow’s (1956) growth model proposed by Mankiw et al. (1992) and a series of subsequent papers evaluating the latter. First, the assumption of a common rate of technical progress maintained by Mankiw et al. (1992) is relaxed. Solow’s model is extended to include the different levels and rates of technical ...

This paper documents the transformation of developing Asia’s manufacturing sector during the last three decades and benchmarks its share in GDP with respect to the international regression line by estimating a logistic regression.

We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it ...

This paper considers unit labor costs (ulcs), i.e., the ratio of the wage rate to labor productivity, as the indicator of competitiveness in the Philippines. It is shown that ulcs have an interpretation from the point of view of the functional distribution of income (i.e., the distribution of output between labor and capital). The paper documents the dynamics of the labor share in national income ...

Jesus Felipe writes that the key to Pakistan’s development lies in its industrialization. This paper documents the level of industrialization of the country vis-a-vis other Asian countries and discusses analytical tools that should help policymakers devise a coherent industrialization plan.