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    Growth Slowdowns, Middle-Income Trap, and Demographic Profile in South Asia

    Jayasooriya, S. P. | May 2017
    Abstract
    The middle-income trap (MIT) is a scenario of rapidly growing economies that experience sudden stops and ultimately lead to stagnation at the middle-income level. Economic growth depends on changes in the demographics of a country. Conversely, the demographic change in economic growth has both positive and negative relationships in the literature. Further, testing a neoclassical model of economic growth is not adequately estimated in the field of demographic and growth slowdowns in South Asia. Therefore, the study uses panel data for understanding the structural change in the demographic changes of South Asian economies. The main approach in middle-income trap literature—the growth slowdowns approach—is used in assessing the MIT fitted into the neoclassical model. The unit root test with a structural break is used for identifying the growth slowdowns. Through this specific approach the current paper is devoted to validating the existence of growth slowdown, hence the middle-income trap. Exploiting Eichengreen, Perkins and Shin (2011, 2013) methodology and adjusting it in order to fit for the South Asian countries, this study identifies numerous slowdown episodes from 1960 to 2014. Thus, a probit model with several indicators is examined to identify which specific factors increase or reduce the likelihood of growth slowdown episodes and consequently drive South Asia into stagnation. The determinants of growth slowdown are: significant negative factors, GDP per capita, lagged growth, trade openness, investment share, demographic profile, and FDI. Further, the study revealed that the demographic transition factors are: fertility rate, dependency ratio, young dependency, labor force, demographic profile, and population density.
    Citation
    Jayasooriya, S. P.. 2017. Growth Slowdowns, Middle-Income Trap, and Demographic Profile in South Asia. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7168.
    Keywords
    Development strategy
    Development models
    Economic development
    New technology
    Rural planning
    Aid coordination
    Industrial projects
    Infrastructure projects
    Natural resources policy
    Educational development
    Absorptive capacity
    Development Planning
    Development Research
    Technology Development
    Aid And Development
    Asian Development Bank
    Comprehensive Development Framework
    Development Cooperation
    Development Management
    Development Planning
    Development Strategies
    Rural planning
    Regional development bank
    Project finance
    Strategic planning
    Infrastructure projects
    Government programs
    Public finance
    Public enterprises
    Development
    Economics
    Development In East Asia
    Development Planning
    Development Research
    Technology Development
    Aid And Development
    Asian Development Bank
    Comprehensive Development Framework
    Development Cooperation
    Development Management
    Development Planning
    Development Strategies
    Development strategy
    Development models
    Economic development
    New technology
    Rural planning
    Aid coordination
    Industrial projects
    Infrastructure projects
    Natural resources policy
    Educational development
    Absorptive capacity
    Economic development projects
    Economic forecasting
    Economic development projects
    Municipal government
    Technology transfer
    Exchanges of patents and technical information
    Technical education
    Technology
    Communication in rural development
    Communication in community development
    Economic development projects
    Development banks
    Economic forecasting
    Environmental auditing
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Human rights and globalization
    Transfer Technocracy
    Absorptive capacity
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7168
    Metadata
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    Author
    Jayasooriya, S. P.
    Theme
    Development
    Economics
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise