Unequal hopes and lives in the U.S.: Optimism (or Lack Thereof), Race, and Premature Mortality

Abstract

The 2016 election highlighted deep social and political divisions in the United States, and related unhappiness and frustration among poor and uneducated whites. We find large heterogeneities in optimism across race groups. After controlling for individual characteristics, African Americans are by far the most optimistic, while whites and Asian Americans are the least optimistic, and these differences are largest among low-income groups. When adding a rural/urban dimension, we found that poor rural whites are the least hopeful among the poor. African Americans and Hispanics also display higher life satisfaction and lower stress incidence than do poor whites. The gaps between African Americans and whites tend to be at their peak in middle age (45-54 and 55-64 year olds). We also explored the association between our detailed data on subjective well-being with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mortality rate data at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. Our results suggest that the absence of hope, which relates to fears about downward mobility among poor and middle-class whites, matches the trends in premature mortality among 45-54 year olds of the same cohorts and in the same places. MSAs with a higher percentage of African-American respondents, which are typically urban and ethnically diverse, tend to be healthier, happier, and more optimistic about the future. We also discuss the mediating effects of reported pain, reliance on disability insurance, and differential levels of resilience across blacks, Hispanics, and whites. These trends constitute a social crisis of proportions that we do not fully understand. We highlight the importance of documenting the extent of the crisis and exploring its causes as a step toward finding solutions in the safety net, health, education, and well-being arenas.