Growing Fiscal Deficit Presents a Major Risk for Vietnam
Hiep, Le Hong | July 2016
Abstract
Vietnam’s fiscal position has deteriorated rapidly in recent years. For example, its budget deficit in 2015 increased 14 per cent to reach 256 trillion dongs (US$11.47 billion), equivalent to 6.1 per cent of its GDP (CafeF, 2016). The country’s increasingly precarious fiscal position has been identified by experts as an urgent matter that can generate potential risks for its long-term macro-economic stability (see, for example, Financial Times, 2016; VnExpress, 2015b). It also poses a considerable challenge for Vietnam’s new government in achieving socio-economic targets set by the recent twelfth congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV). If the fiscal imbalance persists or worsens, it will generate serious economic, political and strategic implications for Vietnam. Solving or mitigating the problem, however, will require not only sound economic policies but also political determination to embrace challenging reforms on the part of the CPV.
This essay seeks to examine this particular problem and its implications. It provides first an overview of Vietnam’s worsening fiscal position and its underlying reasons, and then an analysis of the economic, political and strategic implications that can be expected in the coming years.
Citation
Hiep, Le Hong. 2016. Growing Fiscal Deficit Presents a Major Risk for Vietnam. © ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/6816.Keywords
Taxation
Public Accounting
National Budget
Municipal Bonds
Local Government
Local Taxes
International Monetary Relations
International Financial Market
International Banking
Central Banks
Business Financing
Capital Resources
Budgetary Policy
Capital Needs
Corporate Divestiture
Capital Instruments
Pension Funds
Insurance Companies
Banks
Portfolio Management
Fiscal Administration
Economics of Education
Development Banks
Scaling-Up And Evaluation
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Public Policy Evaluation
Impact Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Urban Development Finance
Trade Finance
Small Business Finance
Rural Finance
Roundtable on International Trade and Finance
Regional Development Finance
Public Service Finance
Public Finance
Project Finance
Private Finance
Nonbank Financing
Non-Bank Financial Institutions
Municipal Finance
Local Government Finance
Local Currency Financing
Limited Resource Financing
International Financial Institutions
Infrastructure Financing
Industrial Finance
Government Financial Institutions
Government Finance
Financing of Infrastructure
Financial Sector Development
Financial Regulation
Economic evaluation
Ecomnomic Forcast
Resources evaluation
Input output analysis
Cost benefit analysis
Use tax
Taxing power
State of taxation
Tax-sales
Tax revenue estimating
Tax planning
Spendings tax
Special assessments
Tax administration and procedure
Sales tax
Real property and taxation
Progressive taxation
Effect of taxation on land use
Effect of taxation on labor supply
Intergovernmental tax relations
Inheritance and transfer tax
Energy tax
Risk assessment
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Cost effectiveness
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
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