Show simple item record

A Predictive System for International Trade Growth

dc.contributor.authorChon Sora
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-14T10:36:56Z
dc.date.available2016-09-14T10:36:56Z
dc.date.issued2016-08-10
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11540/6546
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this paper is to suggest a new predictive system for international trade, based on an unobserved component model. We employ the predictive system developed by P'stor and Stambaugh (2009), which is unlike other conventional predictive regression models. This paper derives an equivalent linear predictive regression from the predictive system, and explains why the proposed predictive system is able to achieve superior out-of-sample predictive power. When predictors are imperfect in an estimated equation, the equation fails to utilize all information from the predictors' past history, and unexplained variations are captured by residuals in the estimated equation. With the use of the predictive system, we can more effectively deal with the dynamics of imperfect predictors. For empirical illustration, we show that, in the case of Korea's export and import growth rates, the predictive system has better out-of-sample predictive powers than the conventional regressions based on Root Mean Squares Error (RMSE). Results from an out-of-sample analysis show that, compared to the benchmark model, the predictive system improves forecast precision by 18.90% for the export growth rate, and by 7.95% for the import growth rate.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherKorea Institute for International Economic Policy
dc.titleA Predictive System for International Trade Growth
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertResources evaluation
dc.subject.expertInput output analysis
dc.subject.expertImport volume
dc.subject.expertExport volume
dc.subject.expertExport Development
dc.subject.expertEconomic agreements
dc.subject.expertInternational market
dc.subject.expertImport policy
dc.subject.expertExport policy
dc.subject.adbProject Evaluation & Review Technique
dc.subject.adbOperations Evaluation
dc.subject.adbEvaluation
dc.subject.adbWorld Trade
dc.subject.adbTrade Volume
dc.subject.adbTrade Promotion
dc.subject.adbTrade Flows
dc.subject.adbTrade Development
dc.subject.adbPatterns Of Trade
dc.subject.naturalParticipatory monitoring and evaluation
dc.subject.naturalParticipative management
dc.subject.naturalForeign trade routes
dc.subject.naturalTrade routes
dc.subject.naturalForeign trade and employment
dc.title.seriesKIEP Working Paper
dc.title.volume16-03
dc.contributor.imprintKorea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
oar.themeEvaluation
oar.themeTrade
oar.themeLabor Migration
oar.adminregionAsia and the Pacific Region
oar.countryBangladesh
oar.countryBhutan
oar.countryIndia
oar.countryMaldives
oar.countryNepal
oar.countrySri Lanka
oar.countryBrunei Darussalam
oar.countryCambodia
oar.countryIndonesia
oar.countryLao People's Democratic
oar.countryMalaysia
oar.countryMyanmar
oar.countryPhilippines
oar.countrySingapore
oar.countryThailand
oar.countryViet Nam
oar.countryCook Islands
oar.countryFiji Islands
oar.countryKiribati
oar.countryMarshall Islands
oar.countryFederated States of Micronesia
oar.countryNauru
oar.countryPalau
oar.countryPapua New Guinea
oar.countrySamoa
oar.countrySolomon Islands
oar.countryTimor-Leste
oar.countryTonga
oar.countryTuvalu
oar.countryVanuatu
oar.countryAfghanistan
oar.countryArmenia
oar.countryAzerbaijan
oar.countryGeorgia
oar.countryKazakhstan
oar.countryKyrgyz Republic
oar.countryPakistan
oar.countryTajikistan
oar.countryTurkmenistan
oar.countryUzbekistan
oar.countryPeople's Republic of China
oar.countryHong Kong
oar.countryChina
oar.countryRepublic of Korea
oar.countryMongolia
oar.countryTaipei,China
dc.identifier.printisbn978-89-322-4254-5
oar.identifierOAR-006224
oar.authorSora, Chon
oar.importtrue
oar.gsauthorChon Sora
oar.googlescholar.linkpresenttrue


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record