Show simple item record

A Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables

dc.contributor.authorPyo Hak K
dc.contributor.authorOh Soo Hyun
dc.description.abstractKorea's export performance has exhibited a remarkable downturn since the end of 2014, declining over the 12 months of 2015 by about eight percent in nominal terms. Conjecturing this to reflect depreciation of the Japanese Yen and, during the second half of 2015, of the Chinese Yuan coupled with a sudden decline in China's import demand, we apply an Armington (1969)-type trade model to match international trade data with input-output tables in order to identify the sources of export variation in Korea to analyze the effect of income (GDP) and exchange rate variation. That Korean exports, given a positive income shock in trading partner countries, tend to be replaced by foreign alternatives reflects a tightening of technology as well as price competition in the global market, and suggests as an optimal export promotion strategy for Korea the pursuit of technological progress and a diversification policy that encompasses both destination and export products.
dc.publisherKorea Institute for International Economic Policy
dc.titleA Short-term Export Forecasting Model using Input-Output Tables
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertResources evaluation
dc.subject.expertInput output analysis
dc.subject.expertImport volume
dc.subject.expertExport volume
dc.subject.expertExport Development
dc.subject.expertEconomic agreements
dc.subject.expertInternational market
dc.subject.expertImport policy
dc.subject.expertExport policy
dc.subject.adbProject Evaluation & Review Technique
dc.subject.adbOperations Evaluation
dc.subject.adbWorld Trade
dc.subject.adbTrade Volume
dc.subject.adbTrade Promotion
dc.subject.adbTrade Flows
dc.subject.adbTrade Development
dc.subject.adbPatterns Of Trade
dc.subject.naturalParticipatory monitoring and evaluation
dc.subject.naturalParticipative management
dc.subject.naturalForeign trade routes
dc.subject.naturalTrade routes
dc.subject.naturalForeign trade and employment
dc.title.seriesKIEP Working Paper
dc.contributor.imprintKorea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
oar.themeLabor Migration
oar.adminregionEast Asia Region
oar.countryRepublic of Korea
oar.authorK, Pyo Hak
oar.authorHyun, Oh Soo
oar.gsauthorPyo Hak K
oar.gsauthorOh Soo Hyun

Files in this item


This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Users also downloaded