Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update
Ferrarini, Benno; Ramayandi, Arief | December 2015
Abstract
The paper updates debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for developing Asia, conducted in 2011. With the
benefit of hindsight, the accuracy of the earlier debt ratio forecasts and underlying macroeconomic
assumptions is assessed. In general, the standard DSA is found able to predict debt ratios fairly accurately.
The fan chart analysis confirms the importance of integrating stochastic analysis to the standard DSA.
Looking forward, debt ratio projections suggest benign outlook remains for the region as a whole, country
heterogeneity notwithstanding. The importance of macroeconomic forecast accuracy is emphasized and the
need to capture volatility by appropriate risk analysis tools is suggested.
Citation
Ferrarini, Benno; Ramayandi, Arief. 2015. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/5302. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537 (Print), 2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
Keywords
Financial Stability
Financial Management System
Financial Restructuring
Capital Market Development
Economics
International Economics
International Financial Market
Multilateral Financial Institutions
Economic Recession
Market
Development Banks
Tax revenue estimating
Public Debt
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/5302Metadata
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