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The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People’s Republic of China: How Fast?

dc.contributor.authorJesus Felipe
dc.contributor.authorConnie Dacuycuy
dc.contributor.authorMatteo Lanzafame
dc.description.abstractFrom 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors so that we can use it for forecasting. Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in the PRC will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). We also estimate that the PRC’s employment share will reach 5%, the share observed in today’s rich economies, by 2042–2048.
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.titleThe Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People’s Republic of China: How Fast?
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertAgricultural Trade
dc.subject.expertTrade Barriers
dc.subject.expertTrade Facilitation
dc.subject.expertSustainable agriculture
dc.subject.expertCommercial agriculture
dc.subject.expertTrade Negotiations
dc.subject.expertTrade Development
dc.subject.expertTrade And Development
dc.subject.expertRegional TradAgreements
dc.subject.expertAgricultural Trade
dc.subject.expertAgriculture Trade Liberalization
dc.subject.adbAgricultural trade
dc.subject.adbAgricultural investment
dc.subject.adbAgricultural economy
dc.subject.adbAgricultural products
dc.subject.adbImport volume
dc.subject.adbExport volume
dc.subject.adbTariff negotiations
dc.subject.adbRegional integration
dc.subject.adbTrade regulations
dc.subject.adbAgricultural market
dc.subject.adbAgricultural economy
dc.subject.naturalAgricultural resource
dc.subject.naturalFarm produce
dc.subject.naturalNatural products in agriculture
dc.subject.naturalPlant products industry
dc.subject.naturalNew agricultural enterprises
dc.subject.naturalAgricultural industry
dc.subject.naturalForeign trade and employment
dc.subject.naturalPerishable goods
dc.subject.naturalConsumer goods
dc.subject.naturalAgricultural products
dc.subject.naturalAgricultural industry
dc.subject.naturalFood industry
dc.title.seriesADB Economics Working Paper Series
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank
oar.adminregionEast Asia Region
oar.countryPeople's Republic of China
oar.authorFelipe, Jesus
oar.authorDacuycuy, Connie
oar.authorLanzafame, Matteo

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