The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People’s Republic of China: How Fast?
Felipe, Jesus; Dacuycuy, Connie; Lanzafame, Matteo | November 2014
Abstract
From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors so that we can use it for forecasting. Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in the PRC will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). We also estimate that the PRC’s employment share will reach 5%, the share observed in today’s rich economies, by 2042–2048.
Citation
Felipe, Jesus; Dacuycuy, Connie; Lanzafame, Matteo. 2014. The Declining Share of Agricultural Employment in the People’s Republic of China: How Fast?. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/4215. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537
Keywords
Agriculture
Agricultural Trade
Trade
Trade Barriers
Trade Facilitation
Sustainable agriculture
Commercial agriculture
Trade Negotiations
Trade Development
Trade And Development
Regional TradAgreements
Agricultural Trade
Agriculture Trade Liberalization
Agricultural trade
Agricultural investment
Agricultural economy
Agricultural products
Import volume
Export volume
Tariff negotiations
Regional integration
Trade regulations
Agricultural market
Agricultural economy
Food
Agricultural resource
Farm produce
Natural products in agriculture
Plant products industry
New agricultural enterprises
Agricultural industry
Foreign trade and employment
Perishable goods
Consumer goods
Agricultural products
Agricultural industry
Food industry
Show allCollapse
Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/4215Metadata
Show full item recordUsers also downloaded
-
Accountability Mechanism: Listening to Communities Affected by ADB-Assisted Projects and Enhancing Development Effectiveness
Asian Development Bank (Asian Development Bank, 2009-03-15)In May 2003, ADB approved a new accountability mechanism to replace the previous Inspection Function. The mechanism was established to provide better access for people adversely affected by ADBassisted projects to voice and seek solutions to their problems and also report alleged violations of ADB’s operational policies and procedures. Establishment of the mechanism is also an effort to enhance ADB’s ...In May 2003, ADB approved a new accountability mechanism to replace the previous Inspection Function. The mechanism was established to provide better access for people adversely affected by ADBassisted projects to voice and seek solutions to their ... -
Managing Reforms for Development: Political Economy of Reforms and Policy-Based Lending Case Studies
Abonyi, George; Bernardo, Romeo; Bolt, Richard; Duncan, Ronald; Tang, Christine (Asian Development Bank, 2013-01-01)The book’s intended readers are development practitioners involved in the policy reform process. It aims to help them understand political economy factors that shape actual outcomes, and to simplify the complexities of policy reform. Successful reform has to resolve two separate and conflicting dimensions: people and time. Reforms, by their very nature, challenge the status quo, often threatening ...The book’s intended readers are development practitioners involved in the policy reform process. It aims to help them understand political economy factors that shape actual outcomes, and to simplify the complexities of policy reform. Successful reform ... -
Multilateralizing Asian Regionalism
Baldwin, Richard; Kawai, Masahiro (Asian Development Bank Institute, 2013-08-15)Motivated by the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Asia over the last decade, this paper studies the challenges faced by the Asian “noodle bowl”—overlapping, multiple trade rules, regulations, and standards in Asia—in the process of regional and global trade integration. The paper first highlights the importance of trade and investment linkages among Asian economies that have formed ...Motivated by the proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Asia over the last decade, this paper studies the challenges faced by the Asian “noodle bowl”—overlapping, multiple trade rules, regulations, and standards in Asia—in the process of ...
Related items
-
How Much Has People Empowerment Progressed among Small Farmers and Fisherfolk? State of People’s Organizations in the Philippines
Songco, Danilo A. (Philippine Institute for Development Studies, 2022-02-28)This is an attempt to quantify government’s performance in empowering small farmers and fishers following the provisions of AFMA. It establishes four dimensions of empowerment that may be used to measure empowerment and presents some evidence of how government has performed under each of these dimensions. It concludes that government has been on track in following AFMA’s prescriptions for SFF ...This is an attempt to quantify government’s performance in empowering small farmers and fishers following the provisions of AFMA. It establishes four dimensions of empowerment that may be used to measure empowerment and presents some evidence of how ... -
The Impact of ACFTA on People’s Republic of China–ASEAN Trade: Estimates Based on an Extended Gravity Model for Component Trade
Sheng, Yu; Tang, Hsiao Chink; Xu, Xinpeng (Asian Development Bank, 2012-07-01)This paper uses an extended gravity model to shed light on the impact of the free trade area agreement between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the members‘ trade flows and trade patterns. New determinants that capture the rising importance of global production sharing and intraregional trade in parts and components in East Asia are ...This paper uses an extended gravity model to shed light on the impact of the free trade area agreement between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the members‘ trade flows and trade patterns. ... -
The Rise of the “Redback” and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies
Ito, Hiro; Chinn, Menzie (Asian Development Bank Institute, 2014-04-07)We investigate the determinants of currency choice for trade invoicing in a cross-country context while focusing on the link between capital account liberalization and its impact on the use of the renminbi (RMB). We find that while countries with more developed financial markets tend to invoice less in the US dollar, countries with more open capital accounts tend to invoice in either the euro or ...We investigate the determinants of currency choice for trade invoicing in a cross-country context while focusing on the link between capital account liberalization and its impact on the use of the renminbi (RMB). We find that while countries with more ...