Measuring the Economic Costs of Conflict
Ra, Sungsup; Singh, Bipul | June 2005
Abstract
This paper attempts to measure the economic costs of conflict, focusing particularly on the impact of continued decline in development expenditures on gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The Nepal Macroeconometric Model is used to estimate GDP growth under different conflict and no-conflict scenarios of development expenditures. Scenario analysis indicates that if development expenditures decline at the current rate (4.2%), the total GDP growth loss is 8.3% for the period between the fiscal years 2005 and 2009, an average loss of 1.7% of growth per annum. If the conflict intensifies and development expenditures decline at twice the current rate (8.4%), total GDP growth lost is 10.3%, an average loss of 2.1% of growth per annum.
Citation
Ra, Sungsup; Singh, Bipul. 2005. Measuring the Economic Costs of Conflict. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/3286. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.Keywords
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Performance Evaluation
Impact Evaluation
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/3286Metadata
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