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Demographic Dividends Revisited, Asian Development Review, Vol. 30(2), pp. 1-25

dc.contributor.authorJeffrey G. Williamson
dc.description.abstractThis paper revisits demographic dividend issues after almost 2 decades of debate. In 1998, David Bloom and I used a convergence model to estimate the impact of demographic-transition-driven age structure effects and calculated what the literature has come to call the “demographic dividend.” These early estimates seem to be similar to those coming from more recent overlapping generation models, when properly estimated. Research has shown that the demographic dividend is not simply a labor participation rate effect, but also a growth effect. Life-cycle savings, investment deepening, foreign capital flows, and schooling have all been greatly affected by the demographic transition. The paper discusses just how much of these positive growth effects are based on accelerating human capital accumulation induced by demand-side quality–quantity trade-offs versus a co-movement between demographic transitions and public schooling supply-side expansions. Since emigration has been driven in part by demography, it has wasted some of the demographic dividend by brain drain. In addition, within-country rural–urban migrations have also been driven in part by demographic transitions with different spatial timing. Finally, the paper shows how lifetime—not just annual—income inequality has been influenced by demographic transitions.
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank and Asian Development Bank Institute
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.titleDemographic Dividends Revisited, Asian Development Review, Vol. 30(2), pp. 1-25
dc.subject.adbdemographic transitions
dc.subject.adbdemographic dividends
dc.title.seriesAsian Development Review
dc.title.volumeVolume 30, Number 2, pp. 1-25
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank Institute
oar.themeLabor Migration
oar.authorWilliamson, Jeffrey G.

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  • Asian Development Review
    The Asian Development Review (ADR) is a professional journal for disseminating the results of economic and development research relevant to Asia and the Pacific. Since 1983, the ADR has been an important part of the history of the Asian Development Bank and its mission to reduce poverty across Asia and the Pacific.

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