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    Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What Can an Early Warning System Model Tell Us?

    Zhuang, Juzhong; Dowling, Malcolm | June 2002
    Abstract
    This brief summarizes major findings of an empirical study that attempts to test the two hypotheses to determine what actually happened in Asia in 1997 using an early warning system (EWS) model (Zhuang and Dowling 2002). EWS models are useful in discriminating between the two hypotheses because they establish 'crisis-triggering' threshold values for economic and financial indicators using historical data. Strong warning signals of a heightened probability of a financial crisis prior to the 1997 crisis from such models would suggest that there are good reasons to believe the crisis was caused more by weak fundamentals than by investor panic.
    Citation
    Zhuang, Juzhong; Dowling, Malcolm. 2002. Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What Can an Early Warning System Model Tell Us?. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1476. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    1655-5260
    Keywords
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Evaluation Strategies
    Evaluation Criteria
    Impact Evaluation
    Risk Financing
    Infrastructure Financing
    Financial Risk Management
    Financial Crisis
    Environmental impact assessment
    Needs assessment
    Cost benefit analysis
    Capital Needs
    Insurance Companies
    Financial Emergency
    Project Risks
    Development Banks
    Ecological risk assessment
    Environmental impact statements
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Environmental impact analysis
    Risk assessment
    Country finance
    Catastrophe bonds
    Insurers
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1476
    Metadata
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    Author
    Zhuang, Juzhong
    Dowling, Malcolm
    Theme
    Evaluation
    Finance
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise