Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What Can an Early Warning System Model Tell Us?
Zhuang, Juzhong; Dowling, Malcolm | June 2002
Abstract
This brief summarizes major findings of an empirical study that attempts to test the two hypotheses to determine what actually happened in Asia in 1997 using an early warning system (EWS) model (Zhuang and Dowling 2002). EWS models are useful in discriminating between the two hypotheses because they establish 'crisis-triggering' threshold values for economic and financial indicators using historical data. Strong warning signals of a heightened probability of a financial crisis prior to the 1997 crisis from such models would suggest that there are good reasons to believe the crisis was caused more by weak fundamentals than by investor panic.
Citation
Zhuang, Juzhong; Dowling, Malcolm. 2002. Causes of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: What Can an Early Warning System Model Tell Us?. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/1476. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
1655-5260
Keywords
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Evaluation Strategies
Evaluation Criteria
Impact Evaluation
Risk Financing
Infrastructure Financing
Financial Risk Management
Financial Crisis
Environmental impact assessment
Needs assessment
Cost benefit analysis
Capital Needs
Insurance Companies
Financial Emergency
Project Risks
Development Banks
Ecological risk assessment
Environmental impact statements
Cumulative effects assessment
Environmental impact analysis
Risk assessment
Country finance
Catastrophe bonds
Insurers
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