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    Climate Change and International Migration: Evidence from Tajikistan

    Murakami, Enerelt | December 2020
    Abstract
    This paper investigates the impact of environmental factors that indicate climate change on household decisions to migrate abroad in the case of Tajikistan, an environmentally vulnerable and a labor-migrant source country in Central Asia. Both long-term climate variation (measured by weather anomalies) and short-term weather shocks (proxied by floods) are considered as environmental factors that could induce migration from Tajikistan. Using two waves of a nationally representative household survey and employing an empirical method within the New Economics of Labor Migration theory framework, the results highlight the differing effects of environmental factors (depending on their type and intensity) on the probability to migrate abroad. The findings show that a rise in air temperature from its long-term average reduces emigration, while changes in precipitation have a non-linear impact on emigration. There are substantial differences in seasonal weather anomalies, of which winter temperature and precipitation have the most significant impact on household decisions to migrate. Sudden onset environmental shocks appear to have a lagged impact on emigration.
    Citation
    Murakami, Enerelt. 2020. Climate Change and International Migration: Evidence from Tajikistan. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12985. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    Keywords
    Cash transfer
    Irregular migrants
    Migrants
    Informal economy
    Climate
    Climate change
    Climate impacts assessment
    Global climate change
    Rural Development
    Rural Development Projects
    Rural Development Research
    Aid And Development
    Immigration
    Trade in services
    Services sector
    GATS (General Agreement for Trade in Services)
    Market access
    Guest workers
    Work permission
    Visas
    Migration
    Rural Urban Migration
    Climatic change
    Climatic influence
    Climatology
    Investment bank
    Investment policy
    Rural areas
    Rural economy
    Rural planning
    Rural poverty
    Development potential
    Rural planning
    Climatic factor
    Soils and climate
    Dynamic climatology
    Climate change mitigation
    Communication in rural development
    Rural enterprise zones
    Rural manpower policy
    Environment impact analysis
    City planning
    Urban climatology
    Bank investment
    Capital investment
    Investment banking
    Venture capital
    Carbon dioxide mitigation
    Carbon markets
    Contributions
    Meteorological forecasting
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12985
    Metadata
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    adbi-wp1210.pdf (369.6Kb)
    Author
    Murakami, Enerelt
    Theme
    Labor Migration
    Climate
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise