Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Beirne, John; Renzhi, Nuobu; Sugandi, Eric; Volz, Ulrich | June 2020
Abstract
This paper empirically examines the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID-19 outbreak, with a special focus on the dynamics of capital flow across 14 emerging market economies. Using daily data over the period 4 January 2010 to 30 April 2020 and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impact on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates due to COVID-19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Our results indicate that fiscal stimulus packages introduced in response to COVID-19, as well as quantitative easing by central banks, have helped to restore overall investor confidence through reducing bond yields and boosting stock prices. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world’s leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID-19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries, which helped to lower sovereign bond yields and prop up stock markets at home, extended to EMEs, notably in relation to stabilizing capital flow dynamics. Going forward, while the ultimate resolution of COVID-19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be some permanent effects on financial markets and capital flows as a result of COVID-19, particularly in EMEs.
Citation
Beirne, John; Renzhi, Nuobu; Sugandi, Eric; Volz, Ulrich. 2020. Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the Covid-19 Pandemic. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/12222.Keywords
Regional Development Finance
Public Scrutiny of City Finances
Non-Bank Financial Institutions
Local Government Finance
Government Financial Institutions
Foreign and Domestic Financing
Financial Risk Management
Assessing Corporate Governance
Good Governance
Governance Approach
Finance
Public Finance
Governance
National Budget
Budgetary Policy
Educational Budget
Public Financial Management
Financial System
Financial Statistics
Business Financing
Subsidies
Social Equity
Economic Equity
Project Risks
Project Impact
Public Administration
Corporations
Taxation
Public Debt
Local Government
Debt Management
Corporate debt
Taxation
Public Accounting
National Budget
Municipal Bonds
Local Government
Taxation
Public Debt
Local Government
Debt Management
Pension Funds
Mutual Funds
Social Equity
Financial Aspects
Fiscal Policy
Financial crisis
Labor economics
Regional economics
Business recessions
Multilateral development banks
Regulatory reform
Capital
Exports
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Investment Requirements
Banks
International banks and banking
Capital movements
Central banks and banking
Bills of exchange
Swaps
Banks and banking
Financial crisis
Credit control
Credit allocation
Capital market
International liquidity
Liquidity
Exchange rate
Investment Requirements
Banks
|Taxing power
Tax administration and procedure
Tax policy
Effect of taxation on labor supply
Decentralization in government
Community power
Corporate divestment
Civil government
Delegation of powers
Equality
Neighborhood government
Subnational governments
Delivery of government services
Local taxation
Options
Government
Local government
Taxation
Employee pension trusts
Investment management
Investments
Multiemployer pension plans
Keogh plans
Individual retirement accounts
Pension plans
Employee pension trusts
Pension trusts
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