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    Nowcasting Economic Growth in India The Role of Rainfall

    Iyer, Tara; Gupta, Abhijit Sen | October 2019
    Abstract
    This study provides a toolkit to nowcast, or produce early estimates of, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) to nowcast GDP growth in India on a quarterly basis from January 2000 to December 2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable means of nowcasting economic growth while accounting for mixed-frequency data, which is data released on different dates, and missing time series. The specified DFM, which includes six quarterly indicators and 12 higher-frequency monthly variables, is able to effectively nowcast growth in India. The variables in the framework are drawn from the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors in India and selected to represent aggregate economic activity. There are several interesting results in the study. A key finding is that rainfall has high predictive content for GDP growth in India, a novel result from the viewpoint of the existing nowcasting literature.
    Citation
    Iyer, Tara; Gupta, Abhijit Sen. 2019. Nowcasting Economic Growth in India The Role of Rainfall. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11255. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (print)
    2313-6545 (electronic)
    Keywords
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Economic Development
    Economic Infrastructure
    Economic Policies
    Regional Economic Development
    Microfinance Programs
    Public Finance
    Local Financing
    Financial Stability
    Financial Sector Regulation
    Public Financial Management
    Financial System
    Financial Statistics
    Foreign and Domestic Financing
    Financial Inclusion
    Foreign direct investment
    Enterprises
    Financial aid
    Economies in transition
    Local Finance
    Local Government
    Insurance Companies
    Banks
    Social Equity
    Pension Funds
    Mutual Funds
    Financial Aspects
    Fiscal Policy
    Social responsibility of business
    Accounting
    Personal budgets
    Cost and standard of living
    Bank accounts
    Credit control
    Regulatory reform
    Banks and banking
    Digital Financial Service
    Pension plans
    Individual retirement accounts
    Employee pension trusts
    Investment management
    Investments
    Multiemployer pension plans
    Keogh plans
    Individual retirement accounts
    Pension plans
    Employee pension trusts
    Pension trusts
    Investment companies
    International banks and banking
    Stock exchanges
    Remittance
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11255
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-593-nowcasting-economic-growth-india.pdf (1.298Mb)
    Author
    Iyer, Tara
    Gupta, Abhijit Sen
    Theme
    Economics
    Finance
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise