Nowcasting Economic Growth in India The Role of Rainfall
Iyer, Tara; Gupta, Abhijit Sen | October 2019
Abstract
This study provides a toolkit to nowcast, or produce early estimates of, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) to nowcast GDP growth in India on a quarterly basis from January 2000 to December 2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable means of nowcasting economic growth while accounting for mixed-frequency data, which is data released on different dates, and missing time series. The specified DFM, which includes six quarterly indicators and 12 higher-frequency monthly variables, is able to effectively nowcast growth in India. The variables in the framework are drawn from the real, monetary, financial, and external sectors in India and selected to represent aggregate economic activity. There are several interesting results in the study. A key finding is that rainfall has high predictive content for GDP growth in India, a novel result from the viewpoint of the existing nowcasting literature.
Citation
Iyer, Tara; Gupta, Abhijit Sen. 2019. Nowcasting Economic Growth in India The Role of Rainfall. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/11255. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537 (print)
2313-6545 (electronic)
Keywords
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Economic Development
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Policies
Regional Economic Development
Microfinance Programs
Public Finance
Local Financing
Financial Stability
Financial Sector Regulation
Public Financial Management
Financial System
Financial Statistics
Foreign and Domestic Financing
Financial Inclusion
Foreign direct investment
Enterprises
Financial aid
Economies in transition
Local Finance
Local Government
Insurance Companies
Banks
Social Equity
Pension Funds
Mutual Funds
Financial Aspects
Fiscal Policy
Social responsibility of business
Accounting
Personal budgets
Cost and standard of living
Bank accounts
Credit control
Regulatory reform
Banks and banking
Digital Financial Service
Pension plans
Individual retirement accounts
Employee pension trusts
Investment management
Investments
Multiemployer pension plans
Keogh plans
Individual retirement accounts
Pension plans
Employee pension trusts
Pension trusts
Investment companies
International banks and banking
Stock exchanges
Remittance
Show allCollapse