Technical Change, Exports, and Employment Growth in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis
Doan, Ha Thi Thanh; Trinh, Quang Long | February 2019
Abstract
This paper analyses the sources of employment growth and assesses the contribution of exports to job creation in China. To do so, we utilize an input–output table to decompose employment growth into contributions from technical change, labour productivity, domestic final demand, and exports of domestically produced output. Our main data source is the annual input–output data from the China Industrial Productivity Database covering 1981–2010, of which employment figures have been adjusted to account for serious structural breaks observed in official statistics. The input–output framework allows us to explore both the direct impact of exports on employment within a given industry and the indirect impact through inter-industry transactions. Our major findings are fourfold. First, the increase in final demand, including both domestic demand and exports, is the main driver of employment growth in China. The strong growth in final demand offsets the decline in employment caused by enhanced labour productivity, especially during the 2000s. Second, the contribution of exports to job creation has increased significantly, especially in manufacturing and agriculture, following China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. Third, labour productivity accelerated in all sectors, led by manufacturing. Last, most technical upgrading occurs in manufacturing, while agriculture experiences increased technical upgrading through the decline in labour usage.
Citation
Doan, Ha Thi Thanh; Trinh, Quang Long. 2019. Technical Change, Exports, and Employment Growth in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis. © Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9793.Keywords
Comprehensive Development Framework
Development Challenges
Development Planning
Millennium Development Goals
Policy Development
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Evaluation Criteria
Human Capital Development
Capital Market Development
Development Economics
Financial Sector Development
Technology Development
World Development Indicators
Evaluation Methods
Aid And Development
Asian Development Bank
Comprehensive Development Framework
Development Cooperation
Development Management
Development Planning
Development Strategies
Development In East Asia
Development Planning
Development Research
Performance Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Job Evaluation
Staff Development
Economic development
Standard of living
Trade development
Employment
Development assistance
ADB
Curriculum development
Development assistance
Development aid
Development indicators
Development potential
Development models
Project appraisal
Performance appraisal
Economic development
Economic indicators
Government programs
Economic growth
Economic policy
Industrial development
Industrial policy
Technology assessment
Economic evaluation
Economic forecast
Input output analysis
Rural planning
Aid coordination
Industrial projects
Infrastructure projects
Natural resources policy
Educational development
Development strategy
Development models
Economic development
Performance appraisal
Needs assessment
Input output analysis
ADB
Employment
Performance appraisal
Project failure
Project impact
Project appraisal
Career development
Vocational training
Labor income
Labor policy
Manpower policy
Promotions
Career development
Job analysis
Participative management
Communication in rural development
Communication in community development
Infrastructure
Central planning
Endowment of research
Partnership
Joint venture
Nation-building
Risk assessment
Economic development projects
Economic forecasting
Industrial research
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Communication in rural development
Communication in community development
Economic development projects
Development banks
Economic forecasting
Environmental auditing
Cumulative effects assessment
Human rights and globalization
Participative management
Grievance procedures
Supervisors
Vocational guidance
Labor policy
Rural manpower policy
Career development
Applications for positions
Affirmative action programs
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