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Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals: Impact of Oil Prices and the People's Republic of China's Growth

dc.contributor.authorHongyi Chen
dc.contributor.authorShuo Cao
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-03T16:23:14Z
dc.date.available2019-04-03T16:23:14Z
dc.date.issued2019-03-30
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11540/9775
dc.description.abstractThis paper identifies five factors that can capture 95% of the variance across 39 US dollar exchange rates based on the principal component method. A time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model is used to analyze the determinants of movements in these exchange rates, revealing that their impact on global oil prices and the People’s Republic of China’s growth has increased significantly since 2008. In particular, the variance of US dollar exchange rates has mainly been driven by these two shocks in recent years. The impact of monetary policy shocks on the currency pairs is comparatively small.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank Institute
dc.titleExchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals: Impact of Oil Prices and the People's Republic of China's Growth
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Analysis
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Framework
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Models
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Performance
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Planning
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Policies
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Reform
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Stabilization
dc.subject.expertResults-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
dc.subject.expertProject Evaluation & Review Technique
dc.subject.expertProject Evaluation
dc.subject.expertProgram Evaluation
dc.subject.expertPerformance Evaluation
dc.subject.expertOperations Evaluation
dc.subject.expertEvaluation Methods
dc.subject.expertEvaluation
dc.subject.adbSocial condition
dc.subject.adbEconomic dependence
dc.subject.adbEconomic assistance
dc.subject.adbInternational monetary relations
dc.subject.adbInternational monetary relations
dc.subject.adbInternational trade
dc.subject.adbNational accounting
dc.subject.adbMarket
dc.subject.adbProject impact
dc.subject.adbDevelopment projects
dc.subject.adbProgram management
dc.subject.adbPerformance appraisal
dc.subject.adbProject appraisal
dc.subject.adbTechnology assessment
dc.subject.adbEconomic indicators
dc.subject.adbGrowth models
dc.subject.adbGross domestic product
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomics
dc.subject.adbEconomic forecast
dc.subject.adbExports
dc.subject.naturalExports
dc.subject.naturalExchange
dc.subject.naturalComparative economics
dc.subject.naturalIndex number
dc.subject.naturalMonetary policy
dc.subject.naturalValue analysis
dc.subject.naturalAdjustment cost
dc.subject.naturalTransaction cost
dc.subject.naturalConditionality
dc.subject.naturalInternational relations
dc.subject.naturalCumulative effects assessment
dc.subject.naturalGrievance procedures
dc.subject.naturalParticipatory monitoring and evaluation
dc.subject.naturalExchange rate
dc.subject.naturalEconomic development projects
dc.subject.naturalEconomic policy
dc.subject.naturalEconomic forecasting
dc.subject.naturalExchange rates
dc.title.seriesADBI Working Paper Series
dc.title.volumeNo. 938
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank Institute
oar.themeEconomics
oar.themeEvaluation
oar.adminregionEast Asia Region
oar.countryPeople’s Republic of China’s
oar.identifierOAR-009434
oar.authorChen, Hongyi
oar.authorCao, Shuo
oar.importTRUE
oar.googlescholar.linkpresenttrue


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  • ADBI Working Papers
    The Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series which began in January 2003. The numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI was established in 1997 in Tokyo, Japan, to help build capacity, skills, and knowledge related to poverty reduction and other areas that support long-term growth and competitiveness in developing economies in Asia and the Pacific.

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