Nonperforming Loans in Asia: Determinants and Macrofinancial Linkages
Lee, Junkyu; Rosenkranz, Peter | March 2019
Abstract
The recent rise of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in some Asian economies calls for close analysis of the determinants, the potential macrofinancial feedback effects, and the implications for financial stability in the region. Using a dynamic panel model, we assess the determinants of the evolution of bank specific NPLs in Asia and find that macroeconomic conditions and bank-specific factors—such as rapid credit growth and excessive bank lending—contribute to the buildup of NPLs. Further, a panel vector autoregression analysis of macrofinancial implications of NPLs in emerging Asia offers significant evidence for the feedback effects of NPLs on the real economy and financial variables. Impulse response functions demonstrate that a rising NPL ratio decreases gross domestic product growth and credit supply and increases unemployment rate. Our findings underline the importance of considering policy options to swiftly and effectively manage and respond to a buildup of NPLs. The national and regional mechanisms underlying NPL resolution are important for safeguarding financial stability in an increasingly interconnected global financial system.
Citation
Lee, Junkyu; Rosenkranz, Peter. 2019. Nonperforming Loans in Asia: Determinants and Macrofinancial Linkages. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9737. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537(print)
2313-6545(electronic)
Keywords
Economic Development
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Policies
Regional Economic Development
Microfinance Programs
Public Finance
Local Financing
Financial Stability
Financial Sector Regulation
Public Financial Management
Financial System
Financial Statistics
Foreign and Domestic Financing
Financial Inclusion
Enterprises
Financial aid
Economies in transition
Local Finance
Local Government
Insurance Companies
Banks
Social Equity
Pension Funds
Mutual Funds
Financial Aspects
Fiscal Policy
Social responsibility of business
Accounting
Personal budgets
Cost and standard of living
Bank accounts
Credit control
Regulatory reform
Banks and banking
Digital Financial Service
Pension plans
Individual retirement accounts
Employee pension trusts
Investment management
Investments
Multiemployer pension plans
Keogh plans
Individual retirement accounts
Pension plans
Employee pension trusts
Pension trusts
Investment companies
International banks and banking
Stock exchanges
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