The Employment Effects of Technological Innovation, Consumption, and Participation in Global Value Chains: Evidence from Developing Asia
Bertulfo, Donald Jay; Gentile, Elisabetta; Vries, Gaaitzen J. de | February 2019
Abstract
Global value chains (GVCs) have been a vehicle for job creation in developing Asia, but there is mounting concern that more sophisticated and cost-effective technology could displace workers through automation or reshoring of production. We use the demand-based input–output approach in Reijnders and de Vries (2018) to examine how employment responded to consumption, trade, and technological advances in 12 economies that accounted for 90% of employment in developing Asia during the period 2005–2015. Structural decomposition analysis based on the Asian Development Bank Multiregional Input–Output Tables combined with harmonized cross-country occupation data indicates that, other things being equal, technological change within GVCs was associated with a decrease in labor demand across all sectors, and an increase in the share of nonroutine cognitive occupations. We also find that increased domestic consumption expenditures of goods and services generated an increase in labor demand large enough to offset the negative employment impact of technological change. Finally, we do not find evidence of major shifts in occupational labor demand due to reshoring.
Citation
Bertulfo, Donald Jay; Gentile, Elisabetta; Vries, Gaaitzen J. de. 2019. The Employment Effects of Technological Innovation, Consumption, and Participation in Global Value Chains: Evidence from Developing Asia. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9735. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537(print)
2313-6545(electronic)
Keywords
Comprehensive Development Framework
Development Challenges
Development Planning
Millennium Development Goals
Policy Development
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Evaluation Criteria
Human Capital Development
Capital Market Development
Development Economics
Financial Sector Development
Technology Development
World Development Indicators
Evaluation Methods
Aid And Development
Asian Development Bank
Comprehensive Development Framework
Development Cooperation
Development Management
Development Planning
Development Strategies
Development In East Asia
Development Planning
Development Research
Performance Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Job Evaluation
Staff Development
Development assistance
ADB
Curriculum development
Development assistance
Development aid
Development indicators
Development potential
Development models
Project appraisal
Performance appraisal
Economic development
Economic indicators
Government programs
Economic growth
Economic policy
Industrial development
Industrial policy
Technology assessment
Economic evaluation
Economic forecast
Input output analysis
Rural planning
Aid coordination
Industrial projects
Infrastructure projects
Natural resources policy
Educational development
Development strategy
Development models
Economic development
Performance appraisal
Needs assessment
Input output analysis
ADB
Employment
Performance appraisal
Project failure
Project impact
Project appraisal
Career development
Vocational training
Communication in rural development
Communication in community development
Infrastructure
Central planning
Endowment of research
Partnership
Joint venture
Nation-building
Risk assessment
Economic development projects
Economic forecasting
Industrial research
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Communication in rural development
Communication in community development
Economic development projects
Development banks
Economic forecasting
Environmental auditing
Cumulative effects assessment
Human rights and globalization
Participative management
Grievance procedures
Supervisors
Vocational guidance
Labor policy
Rural manpower policy
Career development
Applications for positions
Affirmative action programs
Show allCollapse