Trilemma Challenges for the People’s Republic of China
Kawai, Masahiro; Liu, Li-Gang | February 2015
Abstract
This paper first reviews recent developments in exchange rate regimes, capital account liberalization, interest rate liberalization, and monetary policymaking in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It then observes that the PRC’s monetary policy autonomy may have been reduced with falling capital control effectiveness and a rigid exchange regime that is still tightly managed against the United States (US) dollar. This hypothesis is investigated empirically using both the Taylor rule and the McCallum-like rule to test whether the PRC’s money market interest rate and/or quantity of money supply are being increasingly influenced by the US interest rate or reserve accumulation. The paper concludes that there is considerable evidence suggesting diminishing monetary policy autonomy in the PRC. To regain policy autonomy, the monetary authority needs to substantially increase exchange rate flexibility of the renminbi as long as it continues to pursue capital account opening.
Citation
Kawai, Masahiro; Liu, Li-Gang. 2015. Trilemma Challenges for the People’s Republic of China. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9631.Keywords
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Project Evaluation
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Operations Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Project impact
Development projects
Program management
Performance appraisal
Project appraisal
Technology assessment
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
Economic forecast
Exports
Exports
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
Cumulative effects assessment
Grievance procedures
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Exchange rate
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Exchange rates
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9631Metadata
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