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    Trilemma Challenges for the People’s Republic of China

    Kawai, Masahiro; Liu, Li-Gang | February 2015
    Abstract
    This paper first reviews recent developments in exchange rate regimes, capital account liberalization, interest rate liberalization, and monetary policymaking in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It then observes that the PRC’s monetary policy autonomy may have been reduced with falling capital control effectiveness and a rigid exchange regime that is still tightly managed against the United States (US) dollar. This hypothesis is investigated empirically using both the Taylor rule and the McCallum-like rule to test whether the PRC’s money market interest rate and/or quantity of money supply are being increasingly influenced by the US interest rate or reserve accumulation. The paper concludes that there is considerable evidence suggesting diminishing monetary policy autonomy in the PRC. To regain policy autonomy, the monetary authority needs to substantially increase exchange rate flexibility of the renminbi as long as it continues to pursue capital account opening.
    Citation
    Kawai, Masahiro; Liu, Li-Gang. 2015. Trilemma Challenges for the People’s Republic of China. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9631.
    Keywords
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Project Evaluation
    Program Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Operations Evaluation
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Project impact
    Development projects
    Program management
    Performance appraisal
    Project appraisal
    Technology assessment
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Exports
    Exports
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Grievance procedures
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
    Exchange rate
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Exchange rates
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9631
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    adbi-wp513.pdf (735.1Kb)
    Author
    Kawai, Masahiro
    Liu, Li-Gang
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
    Small Medium Business

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    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise