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    Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007-2016

    Ferrarini, Benno | January 2019
    Abstract
    This report assesses the accuracy of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) growth and inflation forecasts for 43 Asian economies from 2007 to 2016. This is done in relation to the benchmark of World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections by the International Monetary Fund. Amid much heterogeneity across countries and years, it has been found that ADO and WEO projections overlap quite closely. Both are inaccurate, especially during crisis years, suggesting that forecasters struggle to come up with reliable forecasts. Projections only sharpen when additional data and evidence become available over time and are incorporated during quarterly revisions.
    Citation
    Ferrarini, Benno. 2019. Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007-2016. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9604. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (print)
    2313-6545 (electronic)
    Keywords
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Project Evaluation
    Program Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Operations Evaluation
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Project impact
    Development projects
    Program management
    Performance appraisal
    Project appraisal
    Technology assessment
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Exports
    Exports
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Grievance procedures
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
    Exchange rate
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Exchange rates
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9604
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-568-ado-forecast-accuracy-2007-2016.pdf (584.2Kb)
    Author
    Ferrarini, Benno
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise