Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007-2016
Ferrarini, Benno | January 2019
Abstract
This report assesses the accuracy of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) growth and inflation forecasts for 43 Asian economies from 2007 to 2016. This is done in relation to the benchmark of World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections by the International Monetary Fund. Amid much heterogeneity across countries and years, it has been found that ADO and WEO projections overlap quite closely. Both are inaccurate, especially during crisis years, suggesting that forecasters struggle to come up with reliable forecasts. Projections only sharpen when additional data and evidence become available over time and are incorporated during quarterly revisions.
Citation
Ferrarini, Benno. 2019. Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007-2016. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9604. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537 (print)
2313-6545 (electronic)
Keywords
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Project Evaluation
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Operations Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Project impact
Development projects
Program management
Performance appraisal
Project appraisal
Technology assessment
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
Economic forecast
Exports
Exports
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
Cumulative effects assessment
Grievance procedures
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Exchange rate
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Exchange rates
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