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    Scenarios for the Philippine Agri-Food System with and without Tariffication: Application of a CGE model with Endogenous Area Allocation

    Briones, Roehlano M. | December 2018
    Abstract
    This paper presents an application of a CGE model to analyze scenarios covering the SDG period at the level of the Philippine economy and for its agri-food sectors. Unlike previous CGE models, the analysis incorporates endogenous area allocation under an aggregate land constraint. The area allocation model is based on constant elasticity of transformation of area harvested in an outer nest between perennial and temporary crops, and an inner nest among the types of perennials and among the types of temporary crops. The baseline scenario finds that growth patterns prevailing since the 2010s can be sustained within the SDG period assuming productivity trends industry and service sectors continue. Unfortunately, the scenario also implies that the mediocre growth performance of agriculture will likewise be sustained into the foreseeable future. Growth proceeds at a moderate pace for most of the agri-food sectors, with the significant exception of banana, which is expected to contract. Similarly, the major crops are all projected to experience a growth in yield and minor change in area harvested, except for banana where deterioration in both indicators is marked. The usefulness of CGE model is demonstrated by applying it to a policy experiment, corresponding to one of the largest reform initiatives in Philippine agriculture, namely the tariffication of the rice import quota. Tariffication is disadvantageous to the palay sector across various measures, namely area harvested, yield, and production. Even agriculture as a whole is adversely affected, experiencing a further growth slowdown. Nonetheless, overall growth of GDP as well as household per capita expenditure rises with greater openness to rice imports. Consistent with expectation, imports are larger with tariffication, leading to more affordable consumer price of rice, and therefore greater rice demand.
    Citation
    Briones, Roehlano M.. 2018. Scenarios for the Philippine Agri-Food System with and without Tariffication: Application of a CGE model with Endogenous Area Allocation. © Philippine Institute for Development Studies. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9529.
    Keywords
    Commercial agriculture
    Agriculture
    Sustainable agriculture
    Trade Volume
    Agricultural Trade
    Food Security And Trade
    Regional Trade Agreements
    Food Security
    Agriculture
    Agricultural Trade
    Trade
    Trade Barriers
    Trade Facilitation
    Sustainable agriculture
    Commercial agriculture
    Trade Negotiations
    Trade Development
    Trade And Development
    Regional Trade Agreements
    Agricultural Trade
    Agriculture Trade Liberalization
    Agroindustry
    Agricultural trade
    Commercial farming
    Agroindustry
    Sustainable development
    Export volume
    Export Development
    Access to markets
    Agricultural market
    Agricultural economy
    Distribution
    Agricultural trade
    Agricultural investment
    Agricultural economy
    Agricultural products
    Import volume
    Export volume
    Tariff negotiations
    Regional integration
    Trade regulations
    Agricultural market
    Agricultural economy
    Agricultural diversification
    Agricultural resource
    Farm produce
    Land capability for agriculture
    Food Supply
    Rural land use
    Technological innovations
    Agricultural innovations
    Farm supply industry
    Natural resource
    Adaptive natural resource management
    Produce trade
    Poor
    Price Indexes
    Integrated rural development
    Cost and standard of living
    Population
    Crop improvement
    Rice farming
    Crop
    Food industry
    Perishable goods
    Food
    Agricultural resource
    Farm produce
    Natural products in agriculture
    Plant products industry
    New agricultural enterprises
    Agricultural industry
    Foreign trade and employment
    Perishable goods
    Consumer goods
    Agricultural products
    Agricultural industry
    Food industry
    Food Safety
    Crop Insurance
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/9529
    Metadata
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    Thumbnail
    pidsdps1851.pdf (1.022Mb)
    Author
    Briones, Roehlano M.
    Theme
    Agriculture
    Trade
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise