How will Vietnam Cope with the Impact of the US-China Trade War?

Abstract

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook published in October 2018 names trade tensions as one of the greatest risks to global economic growth. The US-China trade war is at the centre of global trade tensions, and although some analysts suggest that Vietnam is one of the ‘winners’ in the US-China trade war, a report by FT Confidential Research argues that the country is in fact one of the most vulnerable countries due to its dependence on exports. Furthermore, achieving a sizeable trade surplus with the US would lead to Vietnam being put on the watch list of US trade policy makers. This article analyzes both the positive and negative effects of the US-China trade war on Vietnam. It will also discuss the Vietnamese government’s strategies in dealing with the situation, and conclude with some important points that Vietnam needs to pay more attention to when coping with the war.