El Niño: don't scare the cows

Abstract

This summer will be a scorcher. MetService is forecasting the most severe El Niño in over 20 years. Past El Niño events have hit farmers hard and tipped New Zealand into recession. But farming today is not the farming of yesteryear and we need to examine local conditions one region at a time to understand the likely impacts. Even under a severe event, recession is far from pre-ordained. Key commodity prices could even lift a little.