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    Absorptive Capacity and the Impact of Commodity Terms of Trade Shocks in Resource Export-Dependent Economies

    Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko; Villaruel, Mai Lin C.; Edmonds, Christopher | June 2016
    Abstract
    This paper investigates the role of “absorptive capacity” to manage unexpected shocks to their real economy, with a focus on small, open, natural resource-dependent economies. A quarterly panel data series for 45 countries is constructed, including 23 developing Asian countries for empirical investigation. For the entire sample, the analysis finds that absorptive capacity, choice of exchange rate regime, presence of wealth funds, level of foreign reserves, or degree of resource dependency alone, does not matter when real shocks are introduced to output. However, levels of absorptive capacity or ability to use resource windfalls effectively, and foreign reserves begin to matter when the sample is restricted to resource-dependent countries. Case studies from Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste support this claim highlighting the challenges they face with a sudden influx of natural resource revenues when capacity to effectively use fiscal revenues is limited.
    Citation
    Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko; Villaruel, Mai Lin C.; Edmonds, Christopher. 2016. Absorptive Capacity and the Impact of Commodity Terms of Trade Shocks in Resource Export-Dependent Economies. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8819. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (Print)
    2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
    Keywords
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Project Evaluation
    Program Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Operations Evaluation
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Project impact
    Development projects
    Program management
    Performance appraisal
    Project appraisal
    Technology assessment
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Exports
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Grievance procedures
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
    Exchange rate
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8819
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-487.pdf (1.407Mb)
    Author
    Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko
    Villaruel, Mai Lin C.
    Edmonds, Christopher
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise