How Growth Deceleration in the People’s Republic of China Affects Other Asian Economies: An Empirical Analysis
Lee, Minsoo; Park, Donghyun; Ramayandi, Arief | May 2016
Abstract
Developing Asia has benefited greatly from the rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), primarily through the trade channel. The PRC and its neighbors have collectively formed a regional production network, and the PRC is becoming an increasingly important source of final demand. Two empirical methodologies are used to examine the likely economic impact of growth deceleration in the PRC on other Asian economies: (i) a single-equation approach that captures the trade channel and (ii) a global vector autoregressive model that captures the effects beyond just the trade channel. The results of both analyses confirm that deceleration in the PRC will indeed have a non-negligible negative effect on other economies, especially on East and Southeast Asia. An out-of-sample analysis to tease out the effect of slower growth in the PRC from the recent growth performance of selected Southeast Asian economies suggests that the PRC effect is contributing to the growth dynamics of this region but is not always dominant.
Citation
Lee, Minsoo; Park, Donghyun; Ramayandi, Arief. 2016. How Growth Deceleration in the People’s Republic of China Affects Other Asian Economies: An Empirical Analysis. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8816.ISSN
2313-6537 (Print)
2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
Keywords
Free Trade
Trade Facilitation
Trade
Economic integration
Regional Economic Integration
Intraregional Trade
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Economic planning
Economic structure
Growth policy
Trade relations
Trade policy
Trade policy
Economic development
Economies in transition
International economy
Border integration
Economic integration
Gross domestic product
Trade policy
Trade Regulations
Exchange Rate
Regional economics
Economic forecasting
Economic development projects
Success in business
Business
Free trade
Business
Economics
Communication in economic development
Restraint of trade
International economic integration
Trade blocs
East-West
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Citable URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8816Metadata
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