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    How Growth Deceleration in the People’s Republic of China Affects Other Asian Economies: An Empirical Analysis

    Lee, Minsoo; Park, Donghyun; Ramayandi, Arief | May 2016
    Abstract
    Developing Asia has benefited greatly from the rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), primarily through the trade channel. The PRC and its neighbors have collectively formed a regional production network, and the PRC is becoming an increasingly important source of final demand. Two empirical methodologies are used to examine the likely economic impact of growth deceleration in the PRC on other Asian economies: (i) a single-equation approach that captures the trade channel and (ii) a global vector autoregressive model that captures the effects beyond just the trade channel. The results of both analyses confirm that deceleration in the PRC will indeed have a non-negligible negative effect on other economies, especially on East and Southeast Asia. An out-of-sample analysis to tease out the effect of slower growth in the PRC from the recent growth performance of selected Southeast Asian economies suggests that the PRC effect is contributing to the growth dynamics of this region but is not always dominant.
    Citation
    Lee, Minsoo; Park, Donghyun; Ramayandi, Arief. 2016. How Growth Deceleration in the People’s Republic of China Affects Other Asian Economies: An Empirical Analysis. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8816.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (Print)
    2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
    Keywords
    Free Trade
    Trade Facilitation
    Trade
    Economic integration
    Regional Economic Integration
    Intraregional Trade
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Economic planning
    Economic structure
    Growth policy
    Trade relations
    Trade policy
    Trade policy
    Economic development
    Economies in transition
    International economy
    Border integration
    Economic integration
    Gross domestic product
    Trade policy
    Trade Regulations
    Exchange Rate
    Regional economics
    Economic forecasting
    Economic development projects
    Success in business
    Business
    Free trade
    Business
    Economics
    Communication in economic development
    Restraint of trade
    International economic integration
    Trade blocs
    East-West
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8816
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-484.pdf (1.213Mb)
    Author
    Lee, Minsoo
    Park, Donghyun
    Ramayandi, Arief
    Theme
    Trade
    Economics

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    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise