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Exploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies

dc.contributor.authorGeorge Kopits
dc.contributor.authorBenno Ferrarini
dc.contributor.authorArief Ramayandi
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-25T18:25:49Z
dc.date.available2018-11-25T18:25:49Z
dc.date.issued2016-05-30
dc.identifier.issn2313-6537 (Print)
dc.identifier.issn2313-6545 (e-ISSN)
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11540/8815
dc.description.abstractThe paper explores risk-based fiscal analytical approaches to complement a standard debt sustainability analysis when applied under conditions of risk and uncertainty. To outline a possible road map for risk-adjusted fiscal sustainability analysis, the paper first examines the types of vulnerability faced by different emerging economies in Asia and reviews a range of stochastic methods that attempt to explicitly incorporate risk in their analysis. Drawing on international experience, we note that the usefulness of applying a stochastic approach hinges on policy makers’ capacity to identify the sources and extent of risks in assessing fiscal sustainability, which should then allow them to simulate the impact of a hypothetical corrective action on the baseline trajectory of debt or net worth and on its stochastic distribution, including fat-tail risks of default.
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank
dc.titleExploring Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis for Asian Economies
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertFinancial Stability
dc.subject.expertFinancial Management System
dc.subject.expertFinancial Restructuring
dc.subject.expertCapital Market Development
dc.subject.expertMarket Development
dc.subject.expertEconomics
dc.subject.expertErosion
dc.subject.expertInternational Economics
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic
dc.subject.expertMacroeconomic Analysis
dc.subject.expertPerformance Evaluation
dc.subject.expertImpact Evaluation
dc.subject.expertForeign and Domestic Financing
dc.subject.expertForeign Direct Investment
dc.subject.adbInternational Financial Market
dc.subject.adbMultilateral Financial Institutions
dc.subject.adbEconomic Recession
dc.subject.adbMarket
dc.subject.adbCrisis
dc.subject.adbEconomic indicators
dc.subject.adbGrowth models
dc.subject.adbGross domestic product
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomics
dc.subject.adbEconomic forecast
dc.subject.adbBusiness Financing
dc.subject.adbInvestment Requirements
dc.subject.naturalBusiness recessions
dc.subject.naturalMultilateral development banks
dc.subject.naturalRegulatory reform
dc.subject.naturalCapital
dc.subject.naturalExports
dc.subject.naturalEconomic development projects
dc.subject.naturalEconomic policy
dc.subject.naturalEconomic forecasting
dc.subject.naturalInvestment Requirements
dc.subject.naturalBanks
dc.subject.naturalInternational banks and banking
dc.subject.naturalCapital movements
dc.subject.naturalCentral banks and banking
dc.subject.naturalBills of exchange
dc.subject.naturalSwaps
dc.subject.naturalBanks and banking
dc.subject.naturalFinancial crisis
dc.subject.naturalCredit control
dc.subject.naturalCredit allocation
dc.subject.naturalCapital market
dc.title.seriesADB Economics Working Paper Series
dc.title.volumeNo. 483
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank
oar.themeFinance
oar.themeEconomics
oar.adminregionAsia and the Pacific Region
oar.countryBangladesh
oar.countryBhutan
oar.countryIndia
oar.countryMaldives
oar.countryNepal
oar.countrySri Lanka
oar.countryBrunei Darussalam
oar.countryCambodia
oar.countryIndonesia
oar.countryLao People's Democratic
oar.countryMalaysia
oar.countryMyanmar
oar.countryPhilippines
oar.countrySingapore
oar.countryThailand
oar.countryViet Nam
oar.countryCook Islands
oar.countryFiji Islands
oar.countryKiribati
oar.countryMarshall Islands
oar.countryFederated States of Micronesia
oar.countryNauru
oar.countryPalau
oar.countryPapua New Guinea
oar.countrySamoa
oar.countrySolomon Islands
oar.countryTimor-Leste
oar.countryTonga
oar.countryTuvalu
oar.countryVanuatu
oar.countryAfghanistan
oar.countryArmenia
oar.countryAzerbaijan
oar.countryGeorgia
oar.countryKazakhstan
oar.countryKyrgyz Republic
oar.countryPakistan
oar.countryTajikistan
oar.countryTurkmenistan
oar.countryUzbekistan
oar.countryPeople's Republic of China
oar.countryHong Kong
oar.countryChina
oar.countryRepublic of Korea
oar.countryMongolia
oar.countryTaipei,China
oar.identifierOAR-008515
oar.authorKopits, George
oar.authorFerrarini, Benno
oar.authorRamayandi, Arief
oar.importTRUE
oar.googlescholar.linkpresenttrue


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