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    Time, Uncertainty, and Trade Flows

    Ansón, José; Arvis, Jean-François; Boffa, Mauro; Helble, Matthias; Shepherd, Ben | February 2017
    Abstract
    This paper quantifies the impact of international transport time on bilateral trade flows in goods using previously unexploited information drawn from a large dataset on international parcel delivery times. In line with previous work, we find that an extra day spent in international transit reduces bilateral trade by just under one percent at the sample median. In addition, and for the first time in the literature, we examine the impact of time-related uncertainty, which requires traders to hold costly inventories or build costly redundancies into supply chains. We find that a one day increase in international transport time uncertainty reduces bilateral trade flows by just over one percent. Splitting the sample into developing and developed countries shows that international transit time matters primarily for South-South trade, whereas uncertainty is relatively more important for North-North trade. Using new data on trade in intermediate versus final goods, we also find some evidence that time and uncertainty both matter more for movements of intermediates of the type that takes place within global value chains.
    Citation
    Ansón, José; Arvis, Jean-François; Boffa, Mauro; Helble, Matthias; Shepherd, Ben. 2017. Time, Uncertainty, and Trade Flows. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8751.
    Keywords
    Transport
    Transportation
    Trade
    Trade Facilitation
    Trade Potential
    Trade Development
    Trade Agreements
    Regional Trade Integration
    Regional Trade
    Finance And Trade
    Demand For Transport
    Road & Highway Transport
    Road Transportation Systems
    Transport Infrastructure
    Transport time
    Economic integration
    Energy
    Import volume
    Export volume
    Access to markets
    Economic agreements
    Trade financing
    Regional integration
    Vehicle
    Land transport
    Transport economics
    Railways
    Infrastructure
    Railroads
    Roads
    Trade routes
    Markets
    Economic goods
    Economic conditions
    New agricultural enterprises
    Consumer goods
    Road transportation
    Trucking
    Railroads
    Roads
    Trade routes
    Trade flow
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/8751
    Metadata
    Show full item record
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    adbi-wp673.pdf (1.763Mb)
    Author
    Ansón, José
    Arvis, Jean-François
    Boffa, Mauro
    Helble, Matthias
    Shepherd, Ben
    Theme
    Transport
    Trade
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise