The Impact of Exogenous Demand Shock on the Housing Market: Evidence from the Home Purchase Restriction Policy in the People's Republic of China

Abstract

In order to deal with the rampant increase in housing prices, the Government of the People’s Republic of China implemented the home purchase restriction (HPR) policy to curb speculation and prevent housing bubbles. This policy triggered an exogenous demand shock to the housing market. Employing a two-step difference-in-differences approach, we find significantly negative policy effects on property transaction volume but a small impact on housing prices. Cities relying heavily on land sales for fiscal revenue experience a considerably higher increase in property investments after implementation of the HPR policy.