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    Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia

    Ha, Joonkyung; Lee, Sang-Hyop | February 2018
    Abstract
    We present three conditions for a demography-driven middle-income trap and show that many economies in East, South, and Southeast Asia satisfy all of them. The conditions are (1) support ratio—the ratio of workers to consumers—matters for economic growth, (2) economic development accompanies more investment in human capital and lower fertility due to the quantity–quality tradeoff, and (3) current low level of fertility corresponds to too low support ratios for keeping up with the frontier economies in the long run. The panel analyses for 178 countries, among which 30 are ADB developing member economies, show that (i) and (ii) are satisfied for Asia with higher elasticity than others. As for (iii), we set up a dynamic model for simulations, showing that about two-thirds of ADB members have unsustainable level of support ratios, implying possibilities of a middle-income trap due to demographic headwinds in the future.
    Citation
    Ha, Joonkyung; Lee, Sang-Hyop. 2018. Population Aging and the Possibility of a Middle-Income Trap in Asia. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7917. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (print)
    2313-6545 (electronic)
    Keywords
    Crisis
    Unemployment
    Economic cooperation
    Gross domestic product
    Employment
    Economic forecast
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Economic Crisis
    Economic Efficiency
    Economic Policies
    Regional Economic Development
    Job Evaluation
    Evaluation
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Performance Evaluation
    Impact Evaluation
    Economic Welfare
    Economic Incentives
    Financial crisis
    Labor economics
    Regional economics
    Turnover
    Economic survey
    Job analysis
    Labor turnover
    International relief
    Exports
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7917
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-536.pdf (2.943Mb)
    Author
    Ha, Joonkyung
    Lee, Sang-Hyop
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise