The exchange rate outlook in Azerbaijan in 2018: Expectations and Challenges
Hasanov, Rashad | December 2017
Abstract
The exchange rate of the national currency of Azerbaijan, the manat, will remain the main focus of socio-economic policy in 2018. During the course of the year, factors that will have a positive effect on the exchange rate of the manat – the price of oil, balance of payments, fiscal policy, monetary policy, political environment, etc. – will be stronger. In the course of this forecast’s preparation, risks of change in the current exchange rate policy were taken into account in light of important political factors which may emerge during the first 11 months of the year. As a result of the analysis, while there will not be a sharp drop in oil prices in the January - November 2018 period, there is a high probability that the national currency will remain steady, the probability of the manat strengthening with low interest rates will be low-middle and the probability of the manat cheapening is projected to be low. The influence of political factors on the determination of the manat’s exchange rate will weaken for the next period, while the price of oil will be an important indicator and the Central Bank will play a key role.
Citation
Hasanov, Rashad. 2017. The exchange rate outlook in Azerbaijan in 2018: Expectations and Challenges. © Center for Economic and Social Development. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7843.Keywords
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Project impact
Development projects
Program management
Performance appraisal
Project appraisal
Technology assessment
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
Project Evaluation & Review Technique
Project Evaluation
Program Evaluation
Performance Evaluation
Operations Evaluation
Evaluation Methods
Evaluation
Exports
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
Cumulative effects assessment
Grievance procedures
Participatory monitoring and evaluation
Exchange rates
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