Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals
Cerutti, Eugenio; Claessens, Stijn; Puy, Damien | November 2017
Abstract
This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs), including eight Asian economies. We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs comove considerably. Three findings are reported: (i) the aggregate comovement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows comove; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than a borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.
Citation
Cerutti, Eugenio; Claessens, Stijn; Puy, Damien. 2017. Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7724. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.ISSN
2313-6537 (Print)
2313-6545 (electronic)
Keywords
Taxation
Public Accounting
National Budget
Municipal Bonds
Local Government
Local Taxes
International Monetary Relations
International Financial Market
International Banking
Central Banks
Business Financing
Capital Resources
Budgetary Policy
Capital Needs
Corporate Divestiture
Capital Instruments
Pension Funds
Insurance Companies
Banks
Portfolio Management
Fiscal Administration
Economics of Education
Development Banks
Public enterprises
Public finance
Infrastructure projects
Development projects
Urban Development Finance
Trade Finance
Small Business Finance
Rural Finance
Roundtable on International Trade and Finance
Regional Development Finance
Public Service Finance
Public Finance
Project Finance
Private Finance
Nonbank Financing
Non-Bank Financial Institutions
Municipal Finance
Local Government Finance
Local Currency Financing
Limited Resource Financing
International Financial Institutions
Infrastructure Financing
Industrial Finance
Government Financial Institutions
Government Finance
Financing of Infrastructure
Financial Sector Development
Financial Regulation
Public Sector Infrastructure
Public Sector Management
Public Sector Projects
Bonds
Grants
Loans
Use tax
Taxing power
State of taxation
Tax-sales
Tax revenue estimating
Tax planning
Spendings tax
Special assessments
Tax administration and procedure
Sales tax
Real property and taxation
Progressive taxation
Effect of taxation on land use
Effect of taxation on labor supply
Intergovernmental tax relations
Inheritance and transfer tax
Energy tax
Investment of public funds
Intergovernmental fiscal relations
Social infrastructure
Public works
Government lending
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