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    Flexibility of Adjustment to Shocks: Economic Growth and Volatility of Middle-Income Countries Before and After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008

    Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Estrada, Gemma; Tian, Shu | November 2017
    Abstract
    The pronounced and persistent impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 motivates our empirical analysis of the role of institutions and macroeconomic fundamentals on countries’ adjustment to shocks. Our empirical analysis shows that the associations of growth level, growth volatility, shocks, institutions, and macroeconomic fundamentals have changed in important ways after the crisis. Gross domestic product growth across countries has become more dependent on external factors, including global growth, global oil prices, and global financial volatility. After accounting for the effects global shocks, we find that several factors facilitate adjustment to shocks in middle-income countries. Educational attainment, share of manufacturing output in gross domestic product, and exchange rate stability increase the level of economic growth, while exchange rate flexibility, education attainment, and lack of political polarization reduce the volatility of economic growth. Countries cope with shocks better in the short to medium term by using appropriate policy tools and having good long-term fundamentals.
    Citation
    Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Estrada, Gemma; Tian, Shu. 2017. Flexibility of Adjustment to Shocks: Economic Growth and Volatility of Middle-Income Countries Before and After the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7722. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    ISSN
    2313-6537 (Print)
    2313-6545 (electronic)
    Keywords
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Project impact
    Development projects
    Program management
    Performance appraisal
    Project appraisal
    Technology assessment
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Project Evaluation
    Program Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Operations Evaluation
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation
    Exports
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Grievance procedures
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7722
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    ewp-526.pdf (1.771Mb)
    Author
    Aizenman, Joshua
    Jinjarak, Yothin
    Estrada, Gemma
    Tian, Shu
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise