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Economic Challenges for Korea: Mega-Trends and Scenario Analyses

dc.contributor.authorDanny Leipziger
dc.contributor.authorCarl J. Dahlman
dc.contributor.authorShahid Yusuf
dc.description.abstractThis paper aims to examine some plausible external shocks that can significantly affect Korea’s economic future. It does so by analyzing game-changing scenarios that emanate from a candid assessment of the risks inherent in the global economy. It is based on the premise that it is extremely useful to plan for the less likely events, especially if those events are associated with significantly altered outcomes. These “Black Swan” occurrences are not as far-fetched as one may think, particularly for a country as vulnerable as South Korea. It is for this reason that the report examines scenarios that might materially alter the policy choices facing Korean authorities in the medium term (2017-2022). These scenarios are analyzed in the context of relations between Korea and China, China and the United States and Korea and the United States. The approach of the Report is to first examine major “mega-trends” of de-globalization, disruptive technologies, and greater global uncertainty, and in this context of “shifting sands” to build three game-changing scenarios that can substantially affect Korea. There are three scenarios: A Trade War, initially between China and the United States but with global ramifications; a Troubled China, with significantly lower growth and trade implications; and a Global Meltdown, reminiscent of 2008-2009. We believe there are few countries for which this kind of analysis is more germane than for Korea. The Report aims to hasten further deliberation on the topics of risk and resilience in the Korean policy community to increase preparedness for events that could cause significant disruption to the Korean economy in the medium term.
dc.publisherKorea Institute for International Economic Policy
dc.titleEconomic Challenges for Korea: Mega-Trends and Scenario Analyses
dc.subject.expertSocial condition
dc.subject.expertEconomic dependence
dc.subject.expertEconomic assistance
dc.subject.expertInternational monetary relations
dc.subject.expertInternational monetary relations
dc.subject.expertInternational trade
dc.subject.expertNational accounting
dc.subject.expertProject impact
dc.subject.expertDevelopment projects
dc.subject.expertProgram management
dc.subject.expertPerformance appraisal
dc.subject.expertProject appraisal
dc.subject.expertTechnology assessment
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Analysis
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Framework
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Models
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Performance
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Planning
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Policies
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Reform
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Stabilization
dc.subject.adbResults-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
dc.subject.adbProject Evaluation & Review Technique
dc.subject.adbProject Evaluation
dc.subject.adbProgram Evaluation
dc.subject.adbPerformance Evaluation
dc.subject.adbOperations Evaluation
dc.subject.adbEvaluation Methods
dc.subject.naturalComparative economics
dc.subject.naturalIndex number
dc.subject.naturalMonetary policy
dc.subject.naturalValue analysis
dc.subject.naturalAdjustment cost
dc.subject.naturalTransaction cost
dc.subject.naturalInternational relations
dc.subject.naturalCumulative effects assessment
dc.subject.naturalGrievance procedures
dc.subject.naturalParticipatory monitoring and evaluation
dc.title.seriesKIEP Policy Analysis
dc.contributor.imprintKorea Institute for International Economic Policy
oar.themeLabor Migration
oar.adminregionEast Asia Region
oar.countryRepublic of Korea
dc.identifier.printisbn978-89-322-1670-6 94320
oar.authorLeipziger, Danny
oar.authorDahlman, Carl J.
oar.authorYusuf, Shahid

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