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    Economic Challenges for Korea: Mega-Trends and Scenario Analyses

    Leipziger, Danny; Dahlman, Carl J.; Yusuf, Shahid | September 2017
    Abstract
    This paper aims to examine some plausible external shocks that can significantly affect Korea’s economic future. It does so by analyzing game-changing scenarios that emanate from a candid assessment of the risks inherent in the global economy. It is based on the premise that it is extremely useful to plan for the less likely events, especially if those events are associated with significantly altered outcomes. These “Black Swan” occurrences are not as far-fetched as one may think, particularly for a country as vulnerable as South Korea. It is for this reason that the report examines scenarios that might materially alter the policy choices facing Korean authorities in the medium term (2017-2022). These scenarios are analyzed in the context of relations between Korea and China, China and the United States and Korea and the United States. The approach of the Report is to first examine major “mega-trends” of de-globalization, disruptive technologies, and greater global uncertainty, and in this context of “shifting sands” to build three game-changing scenarios that can substantially affect Korea. There are three scenarios: A Trade War, initially between China and the United States but with global ramifications; a Troubled China, with significantly lower growth and trade implications; and a Global Meltdown, reminiscent of 2008-2009. We believe there are few countries for which this kind of analysis is more germane than for Korea. The Report aims to hasten further deliberation on the topics of risk and resilience in the Korean policy community to increase preparedness for events that could cause significant disruption to the Korean economy in the medium term.
    Citation
    Leipziger, Danny; Dahlman, Carl J.; Yusuf, Shahid. 2017. Economic Challenges for Korea: Mega-Trends and Scenario Analyses. © Korea Institute for International Economic Policy. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7684.
    Print ISBN
    978-89-322-1670-6 94320
    Keywords
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Project impact
    Development projects
    Program management
    Performance appraisal
    Project appraisal
    Technology assessment
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Project Evaluation & Review Technique
    Project Evaluation
    Program Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Operations Evaluation
    Evaluation Methods
    Evaluation
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Cumulative effects assessment
    Grievance procedures
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
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    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7684
    Metadata
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    Thumbnail
    PA1_17-01_Economic_Challenges_for_Korea.pdf (11.64Mb)
    Author
    Leipziger, Danny
    Dahlman, Carl J.
    Yusuf, Shahid
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
    Labor Migration
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise