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    Can Cheap Oil Hurt Net Importers? Evidence from the Philippines

    Brucal, Arlan Z.I.; Abrigo, Michael R.M. | June 2017
    Abstract
    Conventional wisdom suggests that oil price increases have a negative effect on the output of oil-importing countries. This is grounded on the experience of the United States between the 1940s and the late 1980s, where recessions were generally preceded by oil price increases. This paper evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on the Philippines—a developing country and a net oil-importing economy. Following Kilian’s (2008) structural decomposition of real oil price change, we find indications that the 2008–2009 and 2014–2015 oil price drops may have lowered the Philippine economy’s output growth, potentially due to the economy’s reliance on remittances from abroad and the export market.
    Citation
    Brucal, Arlan Z.I.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.. 2017. Can Cheap Oil Hurt Net Importers? Evidence from the Philippines. © Philippine Institute for Development Studies. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7657.
    ISSN
    2508-0954
    2508-0849 (electronic)
    Keywords
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    International monetary relations
    International monetary relations
    International trade
    National accounting
    Market
    Petroleum Refineries
    Petroleum Products
    Petroleum Prices
    Petroleum
    Crude Oil
    Petrochemical Industry
    Export Oriented Industries
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Macroeconomic Framework
    Macroeconomic Models
    Macroeconomic Performance
    Macroeconomic Planning
    Macroeconomic
    Policies
    Macroeconomic Reform
    Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Oil and Gas Industry
    Development cooperation
    Petroleum Industry
    Transport Industry
    Exchange
    Comparative economics
    Index number
    Monetary policy
    Value analysis
    Adjustment cost
    Transaction cost
    Conditionality
    International relations
    Oil refineries
    Gasoline
    Oil
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7657
    Metadata
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    pidspjd2016-1_oil.pdf (902.9Kb)
    Author
    Brucal, Arlan Z.I.
    Abrigo, Michael R.M.
    Theme
    Economics
    Industry
     
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise
    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise