Can Cheap Oil Hurt Net Importers? Evidence from the Philippines
Brucal, Arlan Z.I.; Abrigo, Michael R.M. | June 2017
Abstract
Conventional wisdom suggests that oil price increases have a negative effect on the output of oil-importing countries. This is grounded on the experience of the United States between the 1940s and the late 1980s, where recessions were generally preceded by oil price increases. This paper evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on the Philippines—a developing country and a net oil-importing economy. Following Kilian’s (2008) structural decomposition of real oil price change, we find indications that the 2008–2009 and 2014–2015 oil price drops may have lowered the Philippine economy’s output growth, potentially due to the economy’s reliance on remittances from abroad and the export market.
Citation
Brucal, Arlan Z.I.; Abrigo, Michael R.M.. 2017. Can Cheap Oil Hurt Net Importers? Evidence from the Philippines. © Philippine Institute for Development Studies. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7657.ISSN
2508-0954
2508-0849 (electronic)
Keywords
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Petroleum Refineries
Petroleum Products
Petroleum Prices
Petroleum
Crude Oil
Petrochemical Industry
Export Oriented Industries
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic
Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Oil and Gas Industry
Development cooperation
Petroleum Industry
Transport Industry
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
Oil refineries
Gasoline
Oil
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