Potential output growth generally decelerated after the global financial crisis during 2008–2009. This paper examines the possible determinants of potential output growth using Bayesian Model Averaging and assesses how the determinants can be used to increase the growth of potential output. It finds that the long-term growth of working-age population, the tertiary level gross enrollment ratio, the ...

This paper analyzes why the Philippines’ growth performance has improved significantly in recent years. As in the medium to long term actual growth adjusts to potential, we posit that the reason behind this improvement is that the country’s potential growth is increasing. We derive an estimate of the potential growth rate, defined as the growth consistent with a constant unemployment rate, through ...

"This paper provides a working definition of what the middle-income trap is. It classifies 124 countries that have consistent data for 1950–2010. First, the paper defines four income groups of gross domestic product per capita in 1990 purchasing power parity dollars: low-income below $2,000; lower middle-income between $2,000 and $7,250; upper middle-income between $7,250 and $11,750; and high-income ...

"Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, Gemma Estrada, and Jesus Felipe provide an analysis of the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry in the Philippines. The paper provides a profile of the BPO sector; makes comparisons with other large BPO providers; and uses input–output tables to estimate intersectoral linkages and the potential impact of the sector on employment. Constraints on the sector’s growth are ...

We revisit the lively debate about the sources of growth in East Asia of the 1990s, generated by the wellknown papers by Alwyn Young and Paul Krugman. We show that the methodologies used to apportion growth were problematic, with the consequence that the debate was much ado about nothing.

This paper provides an analysis of developing Asia’s growth experience from the point of view of its structural transformation during the last three decades. The most salient feature of this transformation has been the significant decrease in the share of agriculture and the parallel increase in the share of services. The analysis uses Kaldor’s framework to discuss whether industry plays the role ...