Middle-Income Trap: Review of the Conceptual Framework
Pruchnik, Kamil; Zowczak, Jakub | July 2017
Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop a conceptual framework for the middle-income trap (MIT). Firstly, we present an extensive literature review of what the MIT concept is, why economies become ‘stuck’ in the MIT, and how the idea is criticized. Secondly, we put together a list of countries stuck in the MIT according to different definitions. We contribute to the literature by concluding that there are significant inconsistencies among the prevailing definitions of the MIT. In particular, 60.2% of all countries have been classified as stuck in the trap by at least one definition, as compared to 48.4% of all countries being currently classified as middle-income by the World Bank. Furthermore, at least 36.0% of all countries have been simultaneously classified as stuck in the trap by some definitions and as escapees by others. Thirdly, we propose a framework for assessing exposure to the MIT based on the following factors: i) unfavorable demographics, ii) low level of economic diversification, iii) inefficient financial market, iv) insufficiently advanced infrastructure, v) low level of innovation, vi) weak institutions, vii) inefficient labor market. Finally, as the analysis of the MIT definitions delivers mixed results, we introduce a new concept, the convergence trap.
Citation
Pruchnik, Kamil; Zowczak, Jakub. 2017. Middle-Income Trap: Review of the Conceptual Framework. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7174.Keywords
Price stabilization
Food prices
Price policy
Crisis
Unemployment
Economic cooperation
Gross domestic product
Employment
Economic forecast
Economic indicators
Growth models
Gross domestic product
Macroeconomics
Economic forecast
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
Economic Crisis
Economic Efficiency
Economic Policies
Regional Economic Development
Job Evaluation
Evaluation
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Performance Evaluation
Impact Evaluation
Economic Welfare
Economic Incentives
Open price system
Price fixing
Price regulation
Consumer price indexes
Financial crisis
Labor economics
Regional economics
Turnover
Economic survey
Job analysis
Labor turnover
Exports
Economic development projects
Economic policy
Economic forecasting
Welfare economics
Welfare state
Poor
Food relief
Poverty
Domestic economic assistance
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