The End of the TPP: Symptoms of American Decline and ASEAN's Response

Abstract

The US lacks the political and ideological flexibility needed to adopt reforms that are necessary for it to successfully manage the social and economic effects of globalization. Until it does, public resistance to multilateral trade agreements will remain, and even grow. To be sure, the US intends to remain militarily engaged in Asia, but as its economic engagement declines, an increasing military presence may be destabilizing for the regional order. Within the Asia Pacific, many American allies cling to the hope that the US will find its bearings and re-establish its commitment to the status quo. However, this is unlikely, given the fundamental nature of the US problems. How can and should ASEAN respond to this changing situation? The ASEAN states have an opportunity to redefine their relationship with the US and consolidate intra-ASEAN cooperation. However, it is unlikely that they can manage that. Ultimately, the region will need to come to terms with an ascendant China and accept greater competition between regional powers.