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Is the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or a Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis

dc.contributor.authorChong–En Bai
dc.contributor.authorQiong Zhang
dc.description.abstractWhether the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economic slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis is a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend has important policy implications. Based on provincial panel data, this article identifies the determinants of productivity and uses counter-factual analysis to decompose the causes of the PRC’s post-crisis slowdown. It finds that economic openness has a significantly positive impact on the technical efficiency of production, whereas the income level has a significantly negative effect. Second, a significantly negative correlation is observed between the stock of inventory and productivity, while the opposite is observed between employment involvement rate and productivity. Third, government size and investment rates both have significantly negative effects on productivity. Lastly, the diminishing late-mover advantage and the growth in investment rate are both major contributors to the current decline in the PRC’s productivity. Although the stimulus-induced investment surge has effectively offset the negative effects of the crisis on the PRC’s growth, it is not conducive to the growth of productivity and consumption. The current economic slowdown does not seem to be a cyclical downturn. Indeed, further reforms are needed to stabilize the PRC’s growth.
dc.publisherAsian Development Bank Institute
dc.titleIs the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or a Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis
dc.typeWorking Papers
dc.subject.expertPrice stabilization
dc.subject.expertFood prices
dc.subject.expertPrice policy
dc.subject.expertEconomic cooperation
dc.subject.expertGross domestic product
dc.subject.expertEconomic forecast
dc.subject.expertEconomic indicators
dc.subject.expertGrowth models
dc.subject.expertGross domestic product
dc.subject.expertEconomic forecast
dc.subject.expertSocial condition
dc.subject.expertEconomic dependence
dc.subject.expertEconomic assistance
dc.subject.adbEconomic Crisis
dc.subject.adbEconomic Efficiency
dc.subject.adbEconomic Policies
dc.subject.adbRegional Economic Development
dc.subject.adbJob Evaluation
dc.subject.adbMacroeconomic Analysis
dc.subject.adbPerformance Evaluation
dc.subject.adbImpact Evaluation
dc.subject.adbEconomic Welfare
dc.subject.adbEconomic Incentives
dc.subject.naturalOpen price system
dc.subject.naturalPrice fixing
dc.subject.naturalPrice regulation
dc.subject.naturalConsumer price indexes
dc.subject.naturalFinancial crisis
dc.subject.naturalLabor economics
dc.subject.naturalRegional economics
dc.subject.naturalEconomic survey
dc.subject.naturalJob analysis
dc.subject.naturalLabor turnover
dc.subject.naturalEconomic development projects
dc.subject.naturalEconomic policy
dc.subject.naturalEconomic forecasting
dc.subject.naturalWelfare economics
dc.subject.naturalWelfare state
dc.subject.naturalFood relief
dc.subject.naturalDomestic economic assistance
dc.title.seriesADBI Working Papers
dc.title.volumeno. 635
dc.contributor.imprintAsian Development Bank Institute
oar.themeLabor Migration
oar.adminregionEast Asia Region
oar.countryPeople's Republic of China
oar.authorBai, Chong–En
oar.authorZhang, Qiong

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  • ADBI Working Papers
    The Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series which began in January 2003. The numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI was established in 1997 in Tokyo, Japan, to help build capacity, skills, and knowledge related to poverty reduction and other areas that support long-term growth and competitiveness in developing economies in Asia and the Pacific.

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