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    Is the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or a Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis

    Bai, Chong–En; Zhang, Qiong | January 2017
    Abstract
    Whether the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economic slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis is a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend has important policy implications. Based on provincial panel data, this article identifies the determinants of productivity and uses counter-factual analysis to decompose the causes of the PRC’s post-crisis slowdown. It finds that economic openness has a significantly positive impact on the technical efficiency of production, whereas the income level has a significantly negative effect. Second, a significantly negative correlation is observed between the stock of inventory and productivity, while the opposite is observed between employment involvement rate and productivity. Third, government size and investment rates both have significantly negative effects on productivity. Lastly, the diminishing late-mover advantage and the growth in investment rate are both major contributors to the current decline in the PRC’s productivity. Although the stimulus-induced investment surge has effectively offset the negative effects of the crisis on the PRC’s growth, it is not conducive to the growth of productivity and consumption. The current economic slowdown does not seem to be a cyclical downturn. Indeed, further reforms are needed to stabilize the PRC’s growth.
    Citation
    Bai, Chong–En; Zhang, Qiong. 2017. Is the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or a Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/6788.
    Keywords
    Price stabilization
    Food prices
    Price policy
    Crisis
    Unemployment
    Economic cooperation
    Gross domestic product
    Employment
    Economic forecast
    Economic indicators
    Growth models
    Gross domestic product
    Macroeconomics
    Economic forecast
    Social condition
    Economic dependence
    Economic assistance
    Economic Crisis
    Economic Efficiency
    Economic Policies
    Regional Economic Development
    Job Evaluation
    Evaluation
    Macroeconomic
    Macroeconomic Analysis
    Performance Evaluation
    Impact Evaluation
    Economic Welfare
    Economic Incentives
    Open price system
    Price fixing
    Price regulation
    Consumer price indexes
    Financial crisis
    Labor economics
    Regional economics
    Turnover
    Economic survey
    Job analysis
    Labor turnover
    Exports
    Economic development projects
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Welfare economics
    Welfare state
    Poor
    Food relief
    Poverty
    Domestic economic assistance
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/6788
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Thumbnail
    adbi-wp635.pdf (529.5Kb)
    Author
    Bai, Chong–En
    Zhang, Qiong
    Theme
    Economics
    Evaluation
    Labor Migration

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    Copyright 2016-2020 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise