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    The Effectiveness of Japan’s Negative Interest Rate Policy

    Yoshino, Naoyuki; FarhadTaghizadeh–Hesary; Miyamoto, Hiroaki | January 2017
    Abstract
    In April 2013, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced an inflation target of 2% with the aim of overcoming deflation and achieving sustainable economic growth. But due to lower international oil prices, it was unable to achieve this target and was forced to take further measures. Hence, in February 2016, the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate policy by massively increasing the money supply through purchasing long-term Japanese government bonds (JGB). The BOJ had previously purchased short-term government bonds mainly, a policy that flattened the yield curve of JGBs. On the one hand, banks reduced the numbers of government bonds because short-term bond yields had become negative, and even the interest rates of long-term government bonds up to 15 years became negative. On the other hand, bank loans to the corporate sector did not increase due to the Japanese economy’s vertical investment–saving (IS) curve. This paper firstly explains why, in the view of the authors, the BOJ has to reduce its 2% inflation target in the present low oil price era. Secondly, it argues that Japan cannot make a sustainable recovery from its long-lasting recession and tackle its long-standing deflation problem by means of its current monetary policy and its negative interest rate policy in particular. It is of key importance to make the IS curve downward sloping rather than vertical. That means the rate of return on investment must be positive and companies must be willing to invest if interest rates are set too low. Japan’s long-term recession is due to structural problems that cannot be solved by its current monetary policy. The last section reports our simulation results of tackling Japan’s aging population by introducing a productivity-based wage rate and postponement of the retirement age, which will help the recovery of the Japanese economy.
    Citation
    Yoshino, Naoyuki; FarhadTaghizadeh–Hesary; Miyamoto, Hiroaki. 2017. The Effectiveness of Japan’s Negative Interest Rate Policy. © Asian Development Bank Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/6731. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
    Keywords
    Taxation
    Public Accounting
    National Budget
    Municipal Bonds
    Local Government
    Local Taxes
    International Monetary Relations
    International Financial Market
    International Banking
    Central Banks
    Business Financing
    Capital Resources
    Budgetary Policy
    Capital Needs
    Corporate Divestiture
    Capital Instruments
    Pension Funds
    Insurance Companies
    Banks
    Portfolio Management
    Fiscal Administration
    Economics of Education
    Development Banks
    Scaling-Up And Evaluation
    Results-Based Monitoring And Evaluation
    Public Policy Evaluation
    Impact Evaluation
    Performance Evaluation
    Urban Development Finance
    Trade Finance
    Small Business Finance
    Rural Finance
    Roundtable on International Trade and Finance
    Regional Development Finance
    Public Service Finance
    Public Finance
    Project Finance
    Private Finance
    Nonbank Financing
    Non-Bank Financial Institutions
    Municipal Finance
    Local Government Finance
    Local Currency Financing
    Limited Resource Financing
    International Financial Institutions
    Infrastructure Financing
    Industrial Finance
    Government Financial Institutions
    Government Finance
    Financing of Infrastructure
    Financial Sector Development
    Financial Regulation
    Economic evaluation
    Ecomnomic Forcast
    Resources evaluation
    Input output analysis
    Cost benefit analysis
    Use tax
    Taxing power
    State of taxation
    Tax-sales
    Tax revenue estimating
    Tax planning
    Spendings tax
    Special assessments
    Tax administration and procedure
    Sales tax
    Real property and taxation
    Progressive taxation
    Effect of taxation on land use
    Effect of taxation on labor supply
    Intergovernmental tax relations
    Inheritance and transfer tax
    Energy tax
    Risk assessment
    Economic policy
    Economic forecasting
    Cost effectiveness
    Participatory monitoring and evaluation
    Show allCollapse
    Citable URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11540/6731
    Metadata
    Show full item record
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    adbi-wp649.pdf (307.3Kb)
    Author
    Yoshino, Naoyuki
    FarhadTaghizadeh–Hesary
    Miyamoto, Hiroaki
    Theme
    Finance
    Evaluation

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    Copyright 2016-2021 Asian Development Bank Institute, except as explicitly marked otherwise