Managing Volatile Capital Inflows: The Experience of the 1990s
Reisen, Helmut | June 1996
Abstract
The paper aims at deriving lessons for macroeconomic policy in developing countries in response to heavy temporary capital inflows as witnessed in the early 1990s. First, after spelling out the major reasons why policymakers should be concerned about cyclical inflows, the volatility of different capital-account items {bank lending, foreign direct investment, and portfolio flows} is assessed. Second, the recent capital flows are compared between Asia and Latin America for similarities and differences. Third, the paper discusses for 13 heavy capital importers in Asia and Latin America the extent to which they met the prerequisites postulated by the sequencing literature to avoid macroeconomic complications of heavy capital inflows, and how they used these external savings in light of the debt cycle theory. Finally, the paper draws five policy lessons for the next episode of heavy capital inflows: identify the origin of rising foreign exchange reserves; identify the limits of foreign debt; discourage above-limit, short-term inflows; observe the tradeoff between price stability and competitiveness; and design policies to target monetary aggregates and exchange rates, including fiscal policy, sterilized intervention, reserve requirements, and exchange rate management.
Citation
Reisen, Helmut. 1996. Managing Volatile Capital Inflows: The Experience of the 1990s. © Asian Development Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/5370.Keywords
Macroeconomic
Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Framework
Macroeconomic Models
Macroeconomic Performance
Macroeconomic Planning
Macroeconomic Policies
Macroeconomic Reform
Macroeconomic Stabilization
Social condition
Economic dependence
Economic assistance
International monetary relations
International monetary relations
International trade
National accounting
Market
Exchange
Comparative economics
Index number
Monetary policy
Value analysis
Adjustment cost
Transaction cost
Conditionality
International relations
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